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Comment by andsoitis | Hacker News Reader

List of California Hurricanes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_hurricanes

Note, Hilary won't be Hurricane by the time it hits California. Just a Tropical Storm.

If you actually read that list rather than let yourself be guided by the titles, only one of those (the 1858 one) may have made landfall as a hurricane (the reconstructed track has even it just missing landfall), and the only tropical cyclone known to have had its center over CA as a even a tropical storm was the one in 1939.

> Note, Hilary won’t be Hurricane by the time it hits California.

And it will be the first Tropical Storm over the state since 1939, and its not making a glancing blow to the coast like most tropical cyclones hitting California, but tracking straight up through central SoCal toward and potentially into Nevada, with tropical storm strength winds likely over the whole width of Southern California, massive rainfall, high flash flood risk in a stretch through Southern California up into Nevada, moderate flash flood risk to places as distant from the main track as Las Vegas and potential flooding impacts to and beyond the northern borders of California and Nevada, as well as east into Arizona and Utah.

Then the headline should be changed.

There's plenty of concern around global warming without exaggerating climate and/or weather events. Straying from the facts helps nobody except the news outlets.

Edit: technically, WaPo didn't misstate anything in the headline, but it's a bit deceptive. The HN headline is (currently) wrong, probably because the submitter was fooled by WaPo.

There’s nothing “just” about tropical storms.

For some people it is. A tropical storm doesn't even shut down schools here.

Some folks are being ignorant and dismissive with "just", and some are relating their personal experiences.

I have caught myself saying "just 2 inches of rain" since we get that frequently, sometimes in an hour or two. For many people that is a dangerous and life changing amount of rain... and that can be easy to forget if it isn't for you.

tldr; hanlon's razor

> For some people it is.

There is nothing “just” about tropical storms with tracks over the State of California.

Conversely, people would be flipping out if the expectation was 3 feet of snow and or -65C temperatures to hit your area.

That said, I have trouble imagining anyone saying “just 6 inches of rain and 50 - 70 MPH sustained wind speeds”. The low end of tropical storms aren’t that bad but it covers a wide range.

Just to prove the point that it’s all about where you live and what you’re used to.

Both of your references are at the end of the scale, but not particularly unusual for areas I’ve lived in. It’s both a lot of snow and very cold, but it’s not that much more snow or that much colder than what most people have seen.

Such extreme weather is still a dangerous inconvenience even if it’s not that rare where you live.

And nowhere sees a full blown tropical storms or 3+ feet snowstorms more than a handful of time a year.

From Florida and have lived all over the state all my life. I've seen nasty hurricanes, but I've also seen nasty depressions that stall and wreak more havoc than a hurricane. There's nothing "just" about tropical storms.

As someone who grew up in Florida, there kinda is.

Tropical storm winds aren't enough to cause a problem most of the time. (Falling branches, or particularly weak trees)

Rain can be a problem, if the storm moves slowly.

I also grew up in Florida (I was in Miami for Andrew... fun times). A tropical storm is a significant weather event. It is especially the case for places that don't get this kind of weather. "Just" is completely inappropriate in the context of Hillary hitting California.

Florida tends not to flood due to the sandy soil and limestone. Its trees tend not to fall over (imported Banyans notwithstanding) because palms and pine don't present much canopy to the wind. Flooding is typically only something that happens in low-lying areas due to storm surge. Florida homes are built to withstand hurricane force winds (at least since Andrew). It has storm systems designed to handle a lot of water all at once.

California has clay soil in a lot of places. It doesn't absorb water quickly. It has different foliage that won't handle the wind as well. It has building codes for earthquakes, but probably not for significant wind events. I have no idea how much water the LA storm system can handle all at once.

I live in NC now and even here, tropical storms cause trouble because our soil doesn't drain well and the density of trees is a lot. Even just a bad thunderstorm last week knocked out the power for 100K homes.

The soil and flood events are going to be the gotcha from this. I was in LA at the beginning of the year for the unreasonably and torrentially rainy week. Definitely not a soil that takes well to rapid rain.

I know that California has been burying their power lines (for wildfires).

Not sure how widespread that currently is.

I, too, am from Fl. All my life. Complacency has no place in tropical wx.

California has its own challenges from lightning strikes and hydrology.

But in terms of wind, you'd get laughed out of any Gulf or Atlantic seaboard state for freaking out about a tropical storm.

If a residential structure can't survive tropical storm force winds, then code enforcement took a day off.

It's not a competition. Just as people who live in areas not known for earthquakes will see greater damage should one hit, people who don't normally see hurricanes will see greater damage should one hit (or a tropical storm). It's also about more than housing. The infrastructure isn't prepared to handle such weather either.

My point is that below category 3, you're going to have some power outages, debris cleanup, and mobile home damage.

TS-level wind will be handled by any well built structure.

The rainfall, on the other hand...

Sure there is. Tropical storms can be very weak. Slightly more rain and winds than normal.

I live within a 45 drive time of North Carolina’s Outer Banks. A tropical storm doesn’t even register as anything more than a summer storm here. Even a Category 1 hurricane isn’t really something that causes great concern in this area. Landfall at Category 2 or greater is where people start getting worried.

I really don’t mean to be flippant here, but I doubt anyone needs to be all that concerned about Hilary.

Complacency has no place in tropical wx.

That's not how this works. It's the water, not the wind. This is completely unprecedented

I know. I live in Los Angeles. Last winter we had 12 atmospheric rivers over 2 or 3 months, each dumping as much water in a 24h period as Hilary is expected for our area.

Areas like Palm Springs, though, are expecting much more and I’m worried about my friends there.

However, to say a hurricane is hitting California is hyperbole. I’ve been in hurricanes in both Florida and New York.

Unprecedented? How about when the Central Valley fills up with water every 300 years? Is someone actually claiming that this is never happened in the history of California?

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