Climate Collapse Is Happening Now. What the Heat Tells Us

Someone has been watching too many movies.

Too many documentaries about New Orleans.

I'd look to the indian subcontinent for that kind of climate suffering first. As far as cities falling to climate, Bangladesh might see it first, but they only have 3 cities of that magnitude (although Dhaka is almost a country upon itself at 21M)

What sort of odds and stakes are you willing to offer for a bet based on that?

I'd say there's a high probability (~75%) based on the intense heat difference between city centers and suburbs. I observe an instant 5 degree drop in temperature as soon as I drive outside mostly paved areas into the suburbs, even in the evening and at night.

Pavement and concrete don't even have time to properly cool off at night, so if temperature increases due to global warming, city centers will slowly become uninhabitable.