Am I reading this data correctly?:
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/ZTm0038
Because it looks like today is the most probable day of impact at 10%, but there is a good 25%+ chance it will impact sometime in the next two weeks.
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/ZTm0038
Because it looks like today is the most probable day of impact at 10%, but there is a good 25%+ chance it will impact sometime in the next two weeks.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009457651...
Not my area of expertise, but it sounds like a deep ocean impact would not be completely catastrophic.
With only ∼1% of the asteroid kinetic energy being converted into tsunami waves and with the stronger decay with distance implies that moderate size asteroids (100–500 m in diameter) striking the deep ocean basins off the continental shelves are not a significant overall hazard...
So like a 50% chance it wouldn't be that bad. Larger asteroids would vaporize enough ocean water to cause long lasting atmospheric affects.
Otherwise, a land impact would be somewhere in the 1-100 Tsar Bomba range energy wise.