Previously I thought he was just delaying endlessly because a life on bail is better than 40 years in prison.
But increasingly I think he's just crazy. Not crazy enough for an insanity defence. But too crazy to act reliably...
But increasingly I think he's just crazy. Not crazy enough for an insanity defence. But too crazy to act reliably...
This results in the weirdest excesses and - invariably - they are proven right over and over again. Daddy will bail them out, buy off the authorities or donate to the school and all is forgiven. Running into the wall at this speed has to be a rude wake-up call.
Nice term. Logan's kids on the TV series "Succession" definitely exhibited that affliction.
> Couch was indicted on four counts of intoxication manslaughter for recklessly driving under the influence. In December 2013, Judge Jean Hudson Boyd sentenced Couch to ten years of probation, subsequently ordering him to undergo therapy at a long term inpatient facility. Before sentencing, Couch's attorneys had argued that Couch had "affluenza" and needed rehabilitation instead of prison, arguing that Couch had no understanding of boundaries as his affluent parents had never given him any. Couch's sentence, judged by many as outrageously lenient, set off what The New York Times called "an emotional, angry debate that has stretched far beyond the North Texas suburbs".
I can't imagine what it would feel like to fall from such extreme heights to such extreme lows.
Your description of the ground beneath breaking up over again and keep falling deeper is very apt. That's exactly how it happened.
[1]this is the most infamous example https://archive.ph/Yg64e
It's the hagiography removed from Sequoia's website which amongst other things praises him not doing any due diligence on his business deals as understanding the prisoners' dilemma, paints him dropping out of his first job without a plan as ingenious "risk neutrality" rather than what loads of disaffected graduates with a safety net do and sees his decision to play League of Legends through his investment meeting with them as a sign of how awesome he is rather than a warning sign about his priorities and/or executive function...
Members of every generation have said this (or similar) about the generations that have come after them.
SBF knowingly went down a road that would land him in prison. His current behavior is self-destructive in exactly the same way. You can't expect SBF to behave rationally because if he was capable of that he would still be living the wealthy crypto life. He wouldn't have started a ponzi scheme in the first place.
To my knowledge there was no ponzi mechanism where older investors were paid from money invested by newer investors.
SBF also famously joked on the odd lots podcast that he was in the ponzi business.
It was obviously some form of pyramid scheme based on the rate alone.
And very achievable in tradfi.
Plus staking/lending was only a tiny part of their business.
Ftx was a huge fraud. Just not the flavour you think!
And where would you have achieved 8% yields in a liquid instrument, prior to the recent Fed rate hikes? From the end of the GFC (and the start of QE) until when the current hiking cycle began, 8% was basically the cap of junk bond yields[0]. Half the time, it was under 6%.
Sure, you could probably have bought rental property or invested in a small business and come out above 8% yields, but those are highly illiquid and not comparable to deposits at FTX.
The same applies to this. If someone offers you 400% it's a scam (Ponzi or otherwise). If someone offers you 8% it's risky or there is some other reason no one else has touched it.
8% is not inherently unachievable. Just good (and therefore likely there is some risk).
When the thing is high profile enough and tightly put into the system they will end up getting the legal punishment but the process for them is way way less painful. Cross a border illegally? you sleep on the ground alone, covered with foil blanked for months in a detention center, you final punishment might not be something very high but your process is painful. You defraud people, go after them and, harass them and if you get caught you are surrounded with people sympathetic to you, trying to make sure that you don't have a time of hardship other than you are legally required. The final punishment can be something like living for many years in a highly secure building with no personal schedule and access to the rest of the society but at no point you suffer beyond that. You also get lot's of people around you trying to make sure that you will live in that building as less as possible.
IMHO He will not grasp the seriousness of his situation until everything is over and starts feeling some pain when he has some brilliant idea about crypto or something but he is locked up and can't pursue it.
For me intelligence is having good models of how the world works. Wisdom is making good decisions.
Just as a point of interest, in terms of a legal defense in the US, "insanity" isn't what a lot of people think. It's not a medical term, and whether or not you're considered "insane" by the medical community doesn't enter into it.
All it means is that the person is unable to discern between right and wrong. That's it.
And if you successfully employ the defense (which very rarely succeeds), it doesn't mean you go free. It more likely means that you'll be institutionalized differently.
None of this is crazy. You're going to lose for sure, and then there goes your life. Literally anything makes sense to do.
Try to seduce the prosecutor. Hypnosis. That one spell from Harry Potter that lets you control people. All better options than doing nothing.
Why would he be trying anything except (a) staying on bail and (b) arranging to disappear to a non extradition country?
If he gets his due, he's gonna be doing 10-40+ years. I think there's a real chance he won't get the book at him (eg Jeff Skilling, don't know if I spelled his name right, don't care). It's not really worth it. Plus, everyone knows what a POS you are, which undermines your whole goal of making the world think you're an angel.
Anyway it's actually not a "smart person / dumb person" thing. You can be plenty smart, and you will probably still do some headscratching things in these situations. People reliably do. Lawyers do.
I'm also still just shocked that you seem to assume good decision making from the man, considering his history.
It's part of the reason some people don't post bail - if you're pretty sure you're going to end up in prison anyway, you might as well get started early so you can get out sooner.
Don't get me wrong -- aging isn't for the faint of heart, and you are absolutely more likely to have health problems when you're older vs when you're younger.
But how healthy you live in your youth has an enormous affect on the odds of having major health problems when you're older.
As an older person myself, I suffer from several age-related health degradations, but they are relatively minor (as are the ones of nearly everyone my age that I know). And the upside to being older far outweighs those downsides.
Perhaps I'd feel differently if I had a major health issue -- but perhaps not. You can have a major health issue at any age, after all. All in all, being older is such an improvement that even if I did have major health issues, I suspect I'd still prefer to sacrifice my younger years over my older years.
But that's just me. Others likely have different opinions.
I would imagine nobody does it to get paid but who knows.
In lots of the world, if you're found guilty then the state pays for your prison cell and food. Yet if you're found not guilty, then you have to repay the state for the food and accomodation you wrongly received.
You will be held in the county jail, usually somewhere in your metro area, until your sentencing. It is much easier for people to visit you in the local jail than it will be once you're shipped out to the state pen 2 hours away. After a few rounds of 4-hour commutes for a 30-minute visitation, people stop coming to see you.
Taking the fall early keeps you out of trouble too-- no babies being born 9 months into your sentence or drama arising from you "just trying to talk with" witnesses.
Indeed. That's why there's a rule of thumb that says that the instant you think you're better or smarter than everyone else in the room, you've just become the dumbest person in the room.