Its a bit surprising given observational evidence. right now people seem to be spending at any cost and have run dry. now we are to the point every other weekend the bars/pubs are empty because people already spent their money, and the next week its packed because they got paid.
But that nearly straight line at 10% after 2008 is interesting. It seems like there must have been a big change in behavior?
Here are two even better charts relevant to the subject:
[Consumer Loans: Credit Cards and Other Revolving Plans, All Commercial Banks]/GDP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17Hsu
[Consumer Loans: Credit Cards and Other Revolving Plans, All Commercial Banks]/ ([Total Households] * [Real Median Household Income in the United States]) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17Hsf (units adjusted)
Consumer loans jumped after financial crisis and peaked 2018.
My guess is that that post-financial crises the banks made it harder to give out loans which would decrease the amount of household debt over time as more households get declined on loans.
There's a bifurcation, with some people (mostly homeowners who owned pre-2020) getting a giant handout from the government (record low interest rates, ability to refinance, etc - due to the FED buying mortgage backed securities en masse), and the rest of the people getting shafted.
Seems like if everything costs more, and you get paid more, the things the government purchases probably cost more too, so the tax rate should be the same right?