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Comment by wonderwonder | Hacker News Reader

How much of Tesla do you think is Musk? For example, if Zuck choked Musk to death in a cage fight, what do you think would happen to the stock?

Obviously the odds of this happening are close to 0 but after investing heavily in Tesla I came to the conclusion (perhaps wrongly) that a good deal of the value in tesla stock is tied to Musk. He could get hit by a bus tomorrow.

So I sold and put it all in an index fund that still holds tesla but on a more diluted basis.

Just curious about your outlook on it.

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The more I see of Musk on Twitter the lower I judge his future impact at Tesla. Tesla going forward is going to have to grow its customer facing side and Musk seems unsuited to solving problems that involve humans and emotions. Could be completely wrong of course, often am. That said, I too divested myself 100%.

Having 𝕏 distract Musk may prove to be a boon for both SpaceX and Tesla.

From the cheap seats, it looks like both have terrific strategies and now need to be left alone to execute.

True in the abstract, but both are saddled with a Musk project that will continue for years no matter what: Tesla is going to have a major flop and recall liability with Cybertruck. Starship is a space Spruce Goose.

What confuses me is that Musk's behavior is abhorrent to the "typical" Tesla buyer.

He's courting a new customer base for the Cybertruck.

Not to go too far into the weeds of second guessing him, but I don't think that's courting a new market -- it seems to be the mask coming off.

More falling in with the wrong crowd.

Selling a product into the most profitable market in the automotive industry is 'the mask coming off'? What are you even talking about?

The market for electric cars was primarily amongst "the liberals". You know, treehuggers, whale lovers, etc?

That was a key selling point for the vehicles -- save the planet!

I'm well aware of the market segmentation and where the big ticket items are, thank you very much. Yes, he'll likely get more cybertruck buyers due to fandom but there's a lot of non-truck buyers that are going to rethink giving money to him.

I agree in that this is who he always was, but he's also deliberately going out his way to publicly appeal to certain types of people.

i don't buy it. TSLA still has a big city high tech slant and that's driving most of the sales, while Ford electric trucks are flying like hotcakes. he's going to have to do more to compete on features, on culture, and on reliability -- a big selling point for trucks, and something Tesla's terrible QA will struggle with.

The implication that truck drivers love bipolar douchebags is also vaguely offensive; if that was true the flyover states would be all about Kanye.

This isn't 4D chess, he's just off his rocker and morphing into 2000s Howard Hughes

If the cyber truck burned tetraethtyl lead enriched diesel in a big barrel in the back it would bring in customers that musk has a personal fondness for. Damn I should work in marketing

You sure about that?

> Tesla owners are majority white. 87% of individuals who own the three Tesla models identify as Caucasian, 8% identify as Hispanic, and 5% represent all other ethnicities, according to Hedges and Company. Tesla drivers appear to have higher incomes.

Typically more money means you are less in touch with the surrounding world.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-owner

You can say whatever you want but 𝕏 DAUs are still strong and going up :^).

Quick - name the CEO of Toyota. Can't do it? How about Volkswagen? Still no? These are the two largest car companies in the world.

Honestly, I think Tesla would be better off if Musk were to go away - at this point. Musk really is the perennial entrepreneur. He's a great idea man, and he can get a company built and make that idea come to life. But he can't run a business.

I think Musk has overstayed his welcome at Tesla. He did it - he took EV's from the niche that hardly anybody paid attention to and made them mainstream. Bravo! I never would have thought he could have done it - but he did. Now it's becoming clear it's time for him to step away and tackle another problem. Otherwise he risks interfering with his own success.

Dojo could be a gamechanger for AI if they can create the right compiler tooling.

Optimus also has potential but needs a personality like Musk's to bring it to fruition.

Without him both of the projects will likely be abandoned.

I'm not familiar with Dojo and Optimus, are these some upcoming Tesla car lines like the Cybertruck?

Nope

Is there any evidence that Musk has overstayed his welcome based on any actual numbers.

It seems the me the only evidence is that people now like him less, and somehow that now makes him bad at being CEO.

Sorry, don't really see the connection.

I test drove a Tesla in early 2022, and was set to buy one. I am no longer interested in a Tesla in the slightest. The reason why is Elon Musk's behavior. Not a single person in my friend group wants a Tesla now.

So anecdotal evidence based on your personal friend group and no actual data about sales or demand?

Yes. It’s obviously anecdotal evidence. There has never been another time in my life where I was about to pull the trigger on $40k and walked it back. We aren’t talking about not buying bud light or Nike shoes here. A lost car sale to a competitor over unnecessary behavior from a CEO is absolutely wild. It has the potential of working out for Tesla if they pull in more Conservative Buyers… but the boys back in my rural hometown aren’t interested in a Cybertruck over a Ford (this is more anecdotal evidence).

It feels weird not to drive a car because you don't like the CEO. Maybe that's just me though. Usually scummy CEOs lead obviously scummy companies (think Oracle), and I wouldn't want their products at all. Musk defies that: he is questionable in personality and ethics but SpaceX/Tesla are honestly great companies with good products.

Tesla's market cap is much larger than those two companies combined.

Tesla the company would probably be better off with a serious, responsible CEO. But it will be an ugly ripping the band-aid off moment for the stock, which is valued based on Elon's rosy promises (50% annual growth, real FSD, Optimus, etc) that no one believes his successor would achieve

Isn't the CEO of Nissan some Brazilian guy who escaped jail in Japan? Honestly, besides Tesla, Nissan is the only other company I can think of, and he is the ex-CEO, but almost as interesting (notorious?) as Musk so we actually remember who he is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Ghosn

> How much of Tesla do you think is Musk?

Tesla's valuation is mostly Musk. "Infinite demand", "full self-driving"... the SEC should have cracked down on him a long time ago but they seem unwilling to do so. Ultimately reality will win out and Tesla's stock will realign. That hasn't happened because Musk has an army of fanboys he can use to pump the stock, apparent ins at the SEC and a very aggressive call buying program on Tesla. I don't think anyone other than Musk could get away with pumping the stock like he has, so the valuation is mostly dependent on him.

You think it's all games ? when I see a panel of videos(sandy munroe may be fan boy, I dont know, his reviews seems to be detailed at least), there are regularly a few things that seems impressive.

Competition seems to have difficulties catching up, chargers are improving, single cast car body seems to be a big benefit for factory simplification, they still had the best engine (and the adaptive reluctance idea seemed to be, again, ahead of anything else on market). New models are said to now be designed to be robotics friendly from day 1 which would again reduce costs. The embedded computer is said to, again, be years ahead of other brands. The cars have a lot of defects (windshield, doors, seats) but on the EV side of things .. they seem to keep driving the market.

And I'm not much of a fanboy .. especially since musk started to push beta SDV on the roads (and the twitter shipwreck is not helping)

> You think it's all games?

Yes, because I'm talking about the valuation which is completely divorced from fundamentals and entirely based on Musk's hype of non-existent products like robotaxis and the cyber truck. They're a small, boutique car manufacturer with a $769B market cap. To put things into perspective, GM has a market cap of $51.5B.

Cybertruck is literally in production. The idea that its 'not real' is some conspiracy theory nonsense. Yes it was late, but claiming it doesn't exist is just stupid.

They are not actually 'small' anymore, they are at a 2 million a year run rate and growing.

> GM has a market cap of $51.5B

Yes and have you considered why that is? Look at how many vehicles GM sold in 2008 and then now, it continues to go down. They are retreating from markets. Their EV division has been a complete failure with their ultium platform barley producing a few 1000 cars.

They are surviving because of ICE SUV/Pickups in the US market but have basically no chance to do much beyond that.

And that market is under massive attack over the next half decade.

> Cybertruck is literally in production. The idea that its 'not real' is some conspiracy theory nonsense.

It's not real. You can't buy it, it has no credible deadline for shipping.

> GM has a market cap of $51.5B

> Yes and have you considered why that is?

Yes, the fundamentals of their business dictate this market valuation. Unlike Tesla where the price is dictated by Elon's pumping (and occasional dumping).

Their valuation is far beyond what can be justified by any company that makes and sells cars. IIRC they have (had?) a higher market cap than every other car company combined.

Their valuation is based on being a "tech company" like FAANG, and somehow making more money by offering robo-taxis or something than selling cars.

Musk is willing to make reckless decisions and avoid expensive complications like following the law. A normal car executive would never just break the law re direct sales etc.

I’d guess he’s becoming less valuable as the company is larger. Twitter is the textbook example of the downside of ruling by whim.

You’re right. VW, for example, would NEVER have broken the law by pushing for detection of emissions tests and changing the engine’s outputs when in this mode vs when it was on the road.

Never!

A normal car executive wouldn't take all the risks that got them to where they are right now, you know, having the #1 selling car in the world.

> A normal car executive would never just break the law

You are being sarcastic right?

I have never let the existence of Elon swing my decision making too much one way or the other.

As others have pointed out, he has some qualities that making him a major asset and some that make him a liability.

Since you asked specifically about Elon, I think he is best at launching companies via the SV playbook, but not as well-suited for sustaining mid-to-latestage companies that aim to serve as industry cornerstones (with some exception allotted for SpaceX). The pattern I have seen is the underlying layers of the companies he spearheads early on typically erode due to rapid accumulation of both technical and cultural debt.

Tesla's valuation is likely to sharply decline with or without Musk because it is way out of line. If you want to look prescient, pick either choice:

A. Musk leadership tarnishes Tesla

B. Musk distracted by Twitter, Tesla falls to Earth

Both will be true.

I could see it cutting both ways. Some people love Musk and assume Tesla is only supported by the sweat of his brow. Others view him as an impediment to making good business decisions. Hard to judge which camp is bigger.

On the gripping hand, I personally believe Tesla is over-valued and it only takes a watershed moment for investors to determine the emperor is wearing no clothes which could cause the stock to plummet.

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