How accurate is your confidence?

Hi HN community,

I'm excited to share a short and engaging exercise I've developed, designed to help refine and calibrate your confidence levels. The aim? To align your confident predictions more accurately with reality - your 55% confident claims become 55% accurate, and your 95% confident assertions, 95% accurate.

This interactive adaptation is inspired by Julia Galef's Scouts Mindset, and it provides a fun, hands-on way to fine-tune your confidence calibration. You can explore the original concept at https://juliagalef.com/calibration/.

I've launched this exercise on PayPerRun.com, a platform I'm currently developing and eager to gather your valuable feedback on. For those interested in knowing more about PayPerRun, you can check out a previous post of mine here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37035262.

The source code of the exercise is available here: https://payperrun.com/e-neuman/fun/confidence_calibration?di....

Also, I've documented the building process of this exercise for you to follow through here: https://payperrun.com/e-neuman/fun/confidence_calibration.

Have fun with this!