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What is the definition of a recession you’re operating under? The typical definition is two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth. We’ve not seen that since 4q19 and 1q20, then not since the “Great Recession.”

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-fr...

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Q1 and Q2 of 2022 were negative growth. The past 4 quarters were not and Q2 of 2022 was just barely. So technically there was a brief recession in H1 of 2022. Right now there is no clear sign of a recession as per definition.

I think recessions are also widely misunderstood as being a binary thing. Like going from "everything is A-OK" to "OMG it's all going to shite". There can be a recession which people barely feel. It's not like an event horizon from which there is no turning back.

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