It has started. SHAKEN/STIR are what gives the FCC the ability to trace the source of these calls backwards and hold responsible the gateways acting in bad faith.
It was ridiculously often in 2020/2021/sometime in 2022 maybe?
My understanding is that without STIR a gateway acting in good faith can't definitively identify malicious traffic, and a gateway acting in bad faith can claim any malicious traffic they forward appeared legitimate.