Hacker News Reader

Comment by fallingknife | Hacker News Reader

Why are they all from China? Why are they able to replicate so much faster than US labs?

They have a lot of labs, and materials sourcing is easier for them. That’s partially because China is the origin of lots of stuff, and partly because the US regulated red phosphorus as a meth precursor.

Additionally, it appears some of the original team members were concerned about possible industrial spying or leaks and that 'other parties' might be moving to replicate which was part of the impetus for rushing to publish. So, it's possible that some team(s) in China may have already been starting, underway or at least thinking about it.

Where was this? I haven’t seen this, but it definitely explains the drama surrounding this whole situation.

It couldn’t have come at a worse time for drama either, as the right wing is currently on possibly their most massive anti-science tirade world wide that they’ve ever pushed.

> it definitely explains the drama surrounding this whole situation.

It was in a Twitter thread linked on an HN thread a couple days ago wherein someone had done some digging online into resumes, publication histories, etc and recapped a bunch of the apparent history of LK99 and the related scientists and institutions. Sorry, I didn't bookmark it. But it contained quite a bit more drama including possible team conflict over potential Nobel credit and a deathbed promise to the team's mentor, one of the initial LK99 discoverers.

No matter how this turns out, there's probably a helluva good book or movie in the backstory as it appears to be a team of unlikely underdogs stubbornly pursuing a long-shot while scraping together minimal funding over many years, being passed over for tenure, taking on unrelated side work and having their initial paper rejected by Nature, etc. It makes me extra hopeful that LK99 is at least an interesting novel material, even if not a superconductor.

You're probably referring to https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1684385895565365248

but the same person admitted they're writing fiction (I would call it speculative fiction drawn from known facts) https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1686217806298423299

Well at least the regulations have worked to solve the meth crisis.

Argonne doesn't need to make a name for itself, they already are a "global brand" in science.

They won't jump to publish a video on social media of the first replication of diamagnetism that they get. They'll be putting together a definitive and defensible paper on the production and properties of the material. That will take longer.

And if they can't replicate it, then it'll drag on longer without hearing anything from them, since they'll have to try multiple different methods and reach out to the authors, and iterate until they've exhausted enough possibilities that they feel confident enough publishing a failure to replicate.

Everyone with half a brain in the US is working the ad-tech and data-mining industries, that's where the money is.

To be fair, China also has an extensive state surveillance apparatus. They just have their military and security agencies run it out in the open at much lower cost. The obfuscation in the US is much more expensive to maintain, but necessary for the illusory veneer of privacy and “freedom.”

I suppose the researchers at Lawrence National Lab in Berkeley, whose analysis and pre-print replication effort is cited in the linked article, are working with, what, quarter-brains?

Pessimal, clearly those are the full, wrinkly brains.

This assumes everyone's primary motivation is $, which just isn't true. I've known super bright and talented people who gone off to wall street or FAANG for big $, but I've also known equally strong people who turned it down for low 6 figures doing the research they wanted to.

In both cases some are very happy with their choice, others not so much.

I know a super smart PhD who is now a SWE and he would have been ok with the pay, but not the general BS of academia. So even if money isn't the primary motivator, it's still an issue.

Isn't that sort of what I said? For some people the trade off is worth it, some it isn't. Academia BS vs corporate BS is just one of the aspects.

This is incredible hyperbole, completely unprovable, and almost certainly untrue.

I may be wrong, but it seems..

US labs dont find replication work exciting enough. If the effect is genuine, good, if not, life goes on.

Chinese labs are looking to build credibility, so they will benefit by publicly resolving this.

In addition to what the other commenters said, I'm imagining most of the replication attempts in the USA are happening in chemical corporations. Compared to academic labs, the corps have much easier access to highly regulated materials and FAR stricter communication protocols.

It turns out outsourcing all of your manufacturing capability to another country has higher order consequences.

One limitation here is the required materials, which are likely much easier to get in China. At least one of the materials is a controlled substance by the DEA in the USA.

I mean it's been like 3 weekdays since the preprint was widely noticed. Labs in the U.S. are working on it and will publish. I don't think the difference between publishing a replication in 3 days or 2 weeks is meaningful to make inferences about the two countries

Because there has literally only been 2-3 weekdays since the LK-99 revelation.

Do you expect American and European scientists to work during weekends?

I expect plenty of scientists to be excited enough to replicate a potential breakthrough in their labs on a weekend, just as half of HN enjoys experimenting with the latest LLMs over the weekend for fun and curiosity.

The original paper dropped July 22nd:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037

It's hard to get red phosphorous in USA.

You will hear many explanations, but the real one is that the US leadership in hard science is fading. We are too cerebral and cyber - Asia has picked up the mantle now.

Because China is a new global super power on many fronts including science, engineering and manufacturing ?

With China's research environment things happen really fast--you just never know what you're going to get. Sometimes you get superconductors and sometimes you get COVID.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com