Why it's so important to figure out when a vital Atlantic current might collapse | Hacker News Reader

Why it's so important to figure out when a vital Atlantic current might collapse

text.npr.org

70 pointsrntn13 comments

Previous discussion around the paper this article references submitted a few days ago:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36864319

It's fair to note that the NPR piece discusses more of the timeline and impacts than of the measurements and prediction basis of the paper.

The NPR focus is on what many of the questions concerning earlier stories were about.

Yes, absolutely! Didn't intend to detract from this separate article, mostly wanted to provide further reading.

The UK Met Office on this:

“As far as we’re concerned in the Met Office, the paper is far too simplistic,” said Richard Betts, the Head of the Climate Impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre.

He added: “There’s still no evidence that we’re kind of past the point of no return in terms of devastating impacts.

“On the basis of one paper, don’t despair.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/27/amoc-ocean-colla...

It’s strange to me that the upcoming collapse is so controversial. We’ve known this could happen since the 1990s, based on three measurements from the last time it happened:

Year 0: Normal CO2

Year 100: Higher CO2

Year 200: European ice age due to this current collapsing.

If the timeline plays out like it did before, we’re currently between year 50 and 150, and the collapse will happen between year 100 and 200.

You aren't factoring in the fact that the rate of change is higher than anytime in the past for co2.

The people from NPR now being all apocalyptic about ocean currents, it means that the pandemic is indeed really over.

I was listening to NPR yesterday in the car. The topic fecal bacteria levels on the beaches. The host just blurted out that Climate change drives fecal bacteria levels on the beach. I was curious to hear his reasoning so I can understand the logic behind the statement. But.. nothing more was said of this.

I have a similar but not exact feel about this article. It mentions a study, but the logic in the post does not seem rigorous enough. NPR is great, but I think they are doing a great disservice by not checking their arguments.

It would seem this is the exchange you're talking about:

KELLY: Do I dare ask where [the fecal bacteria on beaches] is coming from?

SCOTT: A number of places - there is pollution from things like failing sewage and stormwater infrastructure. And of course, you know, heavier storms are coming with climate change, so that will likely increase - and then from places like livestock and factory farms.

Seems like a pretty straightforward follow-on from the accepted concept that climate change leads to more severe weather. This was also one story out of three in a little segment... I don't know how much you can reasonably expect in terms of detail here.

To expand on this: It is extremely common for stormwater and sewage systems to be connected in such a way that a stronger than usual rainstorm causes unprocessed ("raw") sewage to be released into rivers and oceans.

Climate change is driving these stronger, burstier storms.

(Many cities are also working on decoupling these systems, but that is a very slow, laborious process...)

Happens a lot in the UK - in some part due to under investment by the water companies and also due to our ageing victorian infrastructure.

At least in older (parts of) cities:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_sewer

> I was listening to NPR yesterday in the car. The topic fecal bacteria levels on the beaches. The host just blurted out that Climate change drives fecal bacteria levels on the beach. I was curious to hear his reasoning so I can understand the logic behind the statement. But.. nothing more was said of this.

> I have a similar but not exact feel about this article. It mentions a study, but the logic in the post does not seem rigorous enough. NPR is great, but I think they are doing a great disservice by not checking their arguments.

well, this doesn't seem to be a case of them not checking their arguments.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8834802/

https://www.health.com/us-beaches-fecal-contamination-755948...

Reply on news.ycombinator.com