This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years
cnn.com
cnn.com
The only real solution is to make energy ubiquitous and plentiful. Governments should be investing 100's billions of dollars into fusion tech. I don't think there is any vision or foresight. Ironically, Oppenheimer came out this year highlighting the development of Los Alamos and the impact of federal projects.
Renewables have been the boring, consensus answer to this for about a decade.
There's some obscure academic discussions about the exact makeup of the last 15% of energy needs, but most of those options revolve around how to best reuse the massive amounts of nearly free electricity that a sensible overbuild of renewables will create at other times.
I know the mainstream media flips between it all being a hoax and us all going to die but I still don't understand how it's possible for so many HN posters to have a worldview that so neatly excludes these world shaking tech developments.
> The IEA expects the growth in renewable generation to cover the vast majority of this total, growing by 2,450TWh. This is equivalent to 98% of the overall increase in global demand.
Fossil Fuels Made Up 82% of Global Energy Consumption in 2022: New Data
Data published Monday shows that fossil fuels made up 82% of global energy consumption in 2022, another indication that the global transition away from planet-warming sources is moving far too slowly as rich nations continue burning oil, gas, and coal at an unsustainable pace.
“Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again," said Davenport. "We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement."
Even if the plants were cost competitive, which they are not, the existing ones are only built to last 30-50 years which means they'll age out and be replaced by renewables on that timescale at the very worst.
Electricity generation (coal) ... 33-40% efficiency
Electricity generation (nat. gas) ... 50-60%
Heating (nat. gas.) ... upto 97%
Transportation ... 20-30%
Industrial ... cement for example at about 50%
What am I missing? Got any links or references for "we only need to replace the third"?
https://ourworldindata.org/energy-substitution-method
Also note that heat pump based heating can be 5x as efficient as nat gas heating. Which means using gas to generate electricity to run heat pumps is an improvement.
edit to add: also note that the oldest, dirtiest and least efficient plants will get shut first, having an outsized impact.
Any future fusion that requires a steam turbine to generate electricity will not be cost competitive with wind/solar/batteries by the time it arrives as the steam turbine will cost more to build and maintain than the alternatives even if you assume the fusion part is free.
Some fusion approaches convert more directly to electricity and might make a difference, but probably not for decades.
What's happening in the meantime?
TISM
They're scaling up at a rate of 5% of total electricity production per year. And that rate is increasing by about 1/3 per year.
That's insanely quick.
https://electricenergyonline.com/article/energy/category/cli...
No compromise is being pursued from the renewables side, while the nuclear side completely agree that renewables will be a major part of our grid.
We tried a few things and figured out what worked best. That sucks if you have a weird emotional attachment to one of those techs that didn't make the cut but that's life.
> To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request.
Without a hint of sarcasm or snark, life isn’t fair. We’re on a trajectory of progress (energy transition) and reduction in quality of life (excess heat deaths) for various geographic cohorts, and not much is going to bend either curve.
https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/devastating-worlds-p...
The world is rapidly aging [3]; we should build renewables while we still have a young, productive worker cohort [4]. How are people who are going to want or need to migrate, to survive carbon emissions catching up with us, going to? No idea.
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rates/
[2] https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-over-time
[3] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-...
[4] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/electricity-generatio...
It has risen and fallen in the past, but nonetheless it's quite a decline at the moment.
That's going to continue to work for many years and degrees to come, so I'm not sure if the problem really is as severe as you think.
We were talking about survival, not luxury living.
Better to give them solar panels and wind turbines. Even if the third world can't manufacture them they can maintain them themselves.
That's a weird take. The West has colonized the rest of the world, enslaved people, exported cheap product to decimate local industry (sometimes at gunpoint), extracted resources (frequently with indigenous people working like slaves), propped up dictators, you name it ...
(I'm not particularly trying to blame the nebulous "West," as many other countries would have done the same if they had the chance. See what Japan did during WW2.)
... but we draw a line at trying to avert a global climate disaster?
Just this year, America was busy making sure China doesn't get the chips they want, by pressuring its own allies into not making more deals with China. And these things are considered completely normal and part of "business as usual" as long as they support the continued hegemony of America.
But talk about fending off the existential threat against the human civilization, and people are like "Oh no! Won't anybody think about those poor Indians who need their gas-powered cars!!"
I refuse to be guilted into thinking I’m somehow a bad man because what someone ultra privileged did, just because of my relative proximity.
USA isn't going to invade countries to hinder their development. Neither is China. Energy needs continue to increase.
There are a lot of ways developed countries can nudge developing ones toward better energy efficiency. Many of them (like, say, funding solar arrays or nuclear plants) would actually benefit these countries. Some of them (say, higher customs tax for products made with fossil fuel energy) may not, but they can be implemented incrementally and paired with other "carrots" like renewable energy projects.
Sure a lot of small 1% improvements can make a change, but we don't know if the curve is linear or exponential.
That threat will always be there, just need to have awareness of it.
Hopefully its linear a linear curve we're on and not exponential. [1]
It's not about denying climate change or the necessity to act, but it's about finding a path forward that respects the rights of all nations to develop. This entails working towards sustainable, clean energy solutions and aiding developing nations in transitioning to such technologies, rather than simply demanding they cut their emissions. Let's strive for an equitable transition to sustainability rather than rehashing past wrongs as justifications for present impositions.
2. Which is exactly what dishonest people do with them.
3. Things over the past few years aren't as bad as they seemed now. These past few years are likely going to be the coldest years of the 21st century.
4. The Antarctic sea ice graph is beautiful. We're smashing every record.
The colored lines are sometimes 30 years and sometimes 20 years. I wonder why they're not equally spaced?
Donald Trump, the conspiracy theorist gameshow host was elected president of the USA! And might be again! So there's no room for complacency.
we do have the option (whether we take up on that) to
* reduce input visible light by (say) using space bubbles to gently shade earth, and|or
* extract C02 from atmosphere using big industry scale procesess powered by excess renewable energy (and then to sequester that CO2 rather than use it to make more faux green synthetic fuels that return it to the atmosphere).
These are not easy things, these are things that require nation scale commitment and follow through, but yes, options exist.
The last time the temperature stayed this hot was 2.5 million years ago, in the Pilocene.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#Ov...
Powerful interests working to push back public opinion and paying politicians is an obstacle too though, for sure.
If you're already well off (like most HN posters, probably) then you might not care if the leader of your country tells you that you will have to reduce your standard of living for the sake of the environment (and keep in mind that they rarely make those claims based on realistic analyses). If you are barely making ends meet and don't know if you will be able to retire after toiling your whole life like many people it is a harder sell. For example, where I live my electricity provider is harassing me to switch to "clean" energy sources, coyly admitting that the price will be higher in fine print. Turns out they entice people to join only to increase their prices later (see https://www.thedailybeast.com/cleanchoice-energy-is-the-snea...). Can you afford to pay double or triple the price for energy? What if you had to? Some of us cannot afford to run air conditioning at a certain price.
Some still think that this is a mere "conspiracy theory", but the messaging is slowly becoming more explicit about this power grab. I'm talking about some national government figures talking about lowering your standards out loud. Less obvious tells are organizations connected to governments setting lofty "sustainability" goals which involve reducing energy footprints to a level that is impossible to achieve without significantly impoverishing nations. Farmers forced to reduce their use of nitrogen fertilizer are the appetizer.
Come on, as an engineer you know these problems are solved by removing the human error from the equation, not by desperately trying to adjust the weight of the human error.
Sure, I'll still recycle and try to not waste food and whatnot. But I know it's a drop in the bucket.
Phoenix had its longest stretch of 110+ degree days since 74, which is damning to the average person for climate change. Think “if we had a comparable heat wave 50 years ago, why should I assume the planet is heating up?”
Now, do I believe in climate change? Yes, of course. Do I think this one year is the mark of the next year and the year after that steadily increasing in temp? No, not at all, or at least not an amount that is noticeable by humans. Climate change is something that is far more subtle and far reaching than “phoenix is a 5f hotter”
There will be permanent damage to critical Earth systems that will further accelerate climate change, even if the temp backs down as El Niño retreats.
Oh, and by the way, El Niño is still ‘ramping up’ and won’t be at max energy for another 2-3 years. Expect more large temperature anomalies in the coming summers.
Some years there will be massive flooding that obliterates yield, and other years it will be heat and drought. None of the reputable science sources I’ve read post anything positive about future crop yields regarding climate change, quite the opposite.
Current climate predictions place us at +3C by the end of the century, which means 100F+ wet bulb temps in previously moderate climates. Nothing we care about survives those temperatures. Not people or crops or cattle.
A logistic curve starts out slow, and that's what we are witnessing.
The reality of weather should not be reduced down to politics, yet here we are. Living in idiocracy.
We're in a strong el nino at the moment and it's not even the worst one in the last 50 years.
The oceans are directly affected by global warming. The oceans are like a big thermal battery. The atmosphere and resulting weather are indirectly affected.
What determines the weather are the global jetstreams. Global warming causes more turbulence in them, but the heat being experienced is not literally from global warming. It could be just as hot or cold or moreso in the past, and it definitely has been.
You cannot go outside and feel global warming. That's a really dumb myth and my entire point. Every time it's hot it's an opportunity for the media to rally all the idiots together and wheel out the same tired propaganda and so many people believe it every time.
It's very important to realize that all those graphs that show increasing temperatures are talking about the ocean.
Climate change is real, but this heat wave has nothing to do with it
Imagine if our global surface temperature average continues to steadily increase, say over 50 years, and we continue to see dramatic spikes in temperature like we're seeing now? Not only will habitats and the life within them be decimated, but humans will be included. In my small city, the 2021 heatwave in Western Canada killed over 600 people more than a heatwave typically would. That's staggering, and we're just getting started.
Early June was warm in the UK.
the only thing missing is agnostic, post-Christian salvation…
regardless, the Church of McDonald's, for all of their other shortcomings as a Church, doesn't seem to fit the profile of "doom cult", so I'm not too concerned about them.
Climate change is just a symptom of much bigger problem, and that's ecological overshoot. Climate change, resource depletion, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, pollution, overpopulation, soil erosion, and overfishing are all symptoms of ecological overshoot.
Animal ag is the leading driver of deforestation, biodiversity loss, pollution and soil erosion.
McDonalds is one of the biggest companies driving deforestation worldwide (5th?), in fact 8 out of 13 biggest deforesting companies worldwide are in the meat industry, one way or another.
https://earth.org/major-companies-responsible-for-deforestat...
Biodiversity conservation: The key is reducing meat consumption
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26231772/
Every year the world loses around 5 million hectares of forest. 95% of this occurs in the tropics. At least three-quarters of this is driven by agriculture – clearing forests to grow crops (upto 80% for animal feed), and raise livestock
https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
Bundling with ocean surface temperature may make it hotter. But then again, why would you do that?
I could see something like a carbon credit for individuals based on their actions that impact the climate such as limiting their power use, not driving their car frequently, or not having pets. This type of rationing also has problems, though, as it starts to become effectively limiting things to wealthy people who can afford a lifestyle in which they can use a car less frequently or own an energy-efficient home for example.
I don't think there is a reasonable way of rationing climate relief in a morally justifiable way.
Are the currently strong going to keep the weak down, will the weak destroy the strong, will power be distributed to minimize the number of weak at the expense of the strong, or will something else entirely happen? My bet is that the strong have quite a lot longer to go getting stronger before the weak can enact meaningful change.
Also worth noting are that there is a large gap between, for example, the American weak and the global weak. The global weak will suffer more and have less avenues to enact change. Americans have the luxury of climate “debate” while Indonesia (not even a super poor country) moves its capital and while others suffer.
EDIT: To be clear, I think this situation is absolutely horrible. Based on how countries have been acting for the last couple decades though, I'm not expecting things to get better before they get much worse.
It's going to be hard to get people to care about this if the takeaway is going to be "other people have to do what we say" as it usually is with climate stuff.
>It's going to be hard to get people to care about this if the takeaway is going to be "other people have to do what we say" as it usually is with climate stuff.
Eh, more like hold the ultra-wealthy accountable for profiteering off, or at the expense of, the planet? and the (comfortable) existence of lots of people based on how things are going?
(The really cool thing is, most (all?) of the individual climate-shaming is propaganda from corporations who know damn well that individuals contribute very little to climate change compared to corporations themselves and the wealthy capital class.)
> The report finds that these billionaires’ investments give an annual average of 3m tonnes of CO2e per person, which is a million times higher than 2.76 tonnes of CO2e which is the average for those living in the bottom 90 percent.
Yes, I understand that's via investment, but that's still kinda precisely my point. Why shouldn't they be held to account?
The poor collectively decide they want clean air and the rich shriek "stop telling other people what to do!" Then the rich turn around and say "stay off my land, and don't you dare occupy my 3rd vacation home even though it's empty right now!"
The point I'm trying to make here is that telling other people what to do is foundational to many of our most basic rights. Do not kill people, do not trespass on other people's property, do not copy my copyrighted works, do not infringe my patents, etc. These things are so basic they are taken for granted and overlooked. Notably, they benefit those who already have wealth. But then, if the poor say "do not destroy the air" or something like that, suddenly the wealthy are concerned about telling other people what to do.
I'd love to know which poor folks you know who have time to worry about global warming.
The unthinkable yet true thing is that there isn't anything we can do to reverse or cure the situation. Best we can do is try to adapt. We're far past the tipping points. Ever heard of Collapse with a capital C?
Ok well let's do that then instead scream about the crazy stuff many sibling comments are advocating. All this rearranging the deck chair on the titanic stuff is just transparently political.
Not surprised. This topic should go across political spectrum. Unfortunately for several decades, instead of proposing solutions, right spectrum was denying that there is problem.
How do you suggest reducing carbon emissions that aren't profitable? We are lucky that wind and solar cost less than other forms of energy, but at some point we will have to pay people to switch to electric cars and then make ICE cars illegal.
Dealing with climate change means everybody needs to stop producing carbon dioxide and pay to pump it back out of the atmosphere. Only government can do that.
I have doubts over the OP claim. It sounds like sensationalism. Review & time will be needed to verify the claim.
https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3071/the-r...
The only way to deliver this opinion in a non-suspect way would be something like: "I'm aware that all metrics show it's the hottest month on record, and everyone is experiencing that everywhere, but <a detailed reason why for some reason your model of the world invalidates that experience that doesn't just wave your hands and dismiss all the evidence>".
Like, it is obvious in the last fifty years. Your argument is "well maybe 200 years ago was hotter and we forgot". Who cares? People are worried about this because it is bad for humans, now.
Geologically speaking, we have just left a mini-ice age. Our efforts are better invested in adjusting to these inevitable changes.
It has no bearing if it changed in the past if we can do something about it not killing most (non-rich) people in the future.
Well it was one bearing if it was like this in the past: it gives people a convenient argument for dismissing it now. So if your goal is "definitely let's make sure we don't handle this well", then at least, if you're right, you can justify that. Pretty pointless, though, unless your goal is destruction.
I don't take a nihlist approach. I take a realistic approach. The changes will occur. What will we do about it? Go into a delusion that we can stop the change or take steps to prepare?
> Well it was one bearing if it was like this in the past: it gives people a convenient argument for dismissing it now
I'm not dismissing it. I'm saying it IS HAPPENING & nothing we do will stop it. So what are we going to do? Sacrifice to the gods to stop the inevitable? Good luck with that...
I would prefer to mitigate these changes by hardening our infrastructure, utilize tech & social systems to improve quality of life, and address pollution like the toxic sludge byproduct to mine materials for your "renewable" equipment.
If you can do work now to make "the planet getting very hot and messed up everyone's lives" take thousands of extra years, during which time it is more livable, why would you not? Obviously you would balance this against other economic and policy concerns, which everyone is, and it comes out way ahead because warming is very bad for everyone.
"It has happened in the past, therefore turn your brain off and tell everyone else to stop thinking also." is not a "realistic" approach, it's a delusional one. It doesn't involve a realistic model of the present or the future. It's profoundly unconcerned with any sort of causal model of reality that makes predictions about the future and therefore analyzes what we ought to do based on their expected outcomes.
The question always is if we can even do something about the climate now or if we should spend the energy and resources into preparing for a potentially inevitable future.
Humans have always been champions of handling change. Why should this be different?
It's usually easier to stop doing something than to deal with the consequences of doing something.
> Humans have always been champions of handling change. Why should this be different?
Humans have never faced this kind of change. It will be different because it's not just a different temperatures, it's the collapse of the ecosystem which we rely on for food.
Can you point to any time during the existence of our species with a similar kind of change?
> and it's collapse of whole ecosystem.
That's mostly based on scientific studies, existing examples of rapid changes in ecosystems, and previous mass extinction events. Do you have any evidence counter to this idea?
You didn't ask for "evidence for my worlds".
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joel_Pett#/media/File%3AWhat...
The biggest threat to a thriving world economy with high degrees of personal freedom is climate change.
I would suggest it is lack of low-cost, easily-accessible energy. Energy has been the driving force behind virtually every technological and economic advance in the past century.
But extinction of pollinators or key species, extreme temperatures causing mass crop failures, extreme droughts, several meter sea rise or a cascade of tipping points could certainly make some serious damage too.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricit...
[0]: https://www.eenews.net/articles/investigation-texas-failed-t...
[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/fossil-f...
https://electrek.co/2023/07/26/thanks-to-wind-and-solar-texa...
The biosphere will not be able to keep up with these changes and we already know that we are causing a mass extinction event and destabilization of the biosphere. Our food system depends on the biosphere.
Our society also depends on the conditions that have been relatively stable for the last several millennia. Sure, there was a mini ice age, but we're talking about a smaller change in climate and far more gradual in that ice age, than what we are currently experiencing and causing. And that mini ice age was enough to cause mass disruption to human societies in areas most impacted by it.
Our current human caused climate change - if allowed to continue unabated - is likely to cause disruption on scales that lead to the death of billions of humans and the likely collapse of societies. We cannot ignore the cause of it (us) and simply adapt to the new reality. The way we adapt to this is by changing the behaviors that created it in the first place: We stop burning fossil fuels. That way it stops getting worse, then we work to return the climate to what it was previously, or we work to adapt to our new (now, hopefully, stabilized) reality.
We're quickly losing the window to even do that, however, because we're triggering feedback mechanisms that make this change self-replicating. So we likely need to go heavily into carbon removal and fast as well.
Of course. If those changes would happen in a timeframe spanning hundreds of centuries we could dedicate some effort to progressively adapt to them, when it looms to violently happen upon us in the next 50-100 years and it's known it could've been partially avoided I don't think we can just magically wave it away to "it will eventually be solved technologically". It might as well not be, that's the scary part.
Russia's tundra becomes arable land, and their fossil fuels become more accessible. Their navy will be able to freely roam the seas when the polar ice caps melt.
Canada will receive the same benefits - enormous access to fresh water, ease of navigation, and agriculturally ideal conditions.
Greenland will have an increasingly large stake in geopolitics, trade, and energy.
China will be less existentially concerned about a blockade of the Strait of Malacca.
And they'll lose.
If you look at the distribution of power, it's not predicted to change all that much. The superpowers are enormously capable of maintaining their grip.
The complaints of poor nations will be met with meager welfare packages and mostly tuned out by the working class of weather nations. It's how the world already operates.
Put the American economy at risk and you get the Gulf War. Attack America directly and you get the Pacific theater.
In any case, none of those particular points matter. No poor country is going to be able to resource starve the wealthiest nations. If they try to invade or block trade, they'll find out the limits of their power.
Several of the countires made "poor" by climate change will have nuclear weapons: Indian, Pakistan, France, Israel, North Korea. You're living in a fantasy. Time to wake up.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Shield
[2] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/wildfires-peat-chall...
edit: bryanlarsen pointed out that there was an even more extreme event in earth's history.
It kicked off the largest mass extinction event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extin...
"very quick" = 60 ± 48 thousand years, we're aiming for 100 years or so
> It kicked off the largest mass extinction event
Yet. Let's wait few decades.
> It is also the largest known mass extinction of insects.
We're already 75-80% down.
https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-insect-population-fl...
https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/living-planet-report-202...
https://wwflpr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/lpr_2022_full_r...
There has been about 69 per cent decline in the wildlife population of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish across the globe in the last 50 years. The highest decline, 94 per cent was in Latin America and Caribbean region. According to WWF report, Africa recorded 66 percent fall in wildlife population, the Asia Pacific 55 percent and population of freshwater species reduced by 83 percent globally.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/brv.12816
The Sixth Mass Extinction: fact, fiction or speculation?
"Estimate that, since around AD 1500, possibly as many as 7.5–13% (150,000–260,000) of all ~2 million known species have already gone extinct, orders of magnitude greater than the 882 (0.04%) on the Red List."
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22287498/meat-wildlife-bi...
The way we eat could lead to habitat loss for 17,000 species by 2050
https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-glob...
Our global food system is the primary driver of biodiversity loss
While the 19th-21th century increase of 1-1.2C or so is a bit faster, it's not a magnitude faster.
Humans have definitely changed nature everywhere, and is probably responsible for many species dying. But blaming that on the climate change doesn't really make sense. Deforestation is much more likely to be the cause.
Mainly our agriculture (deforestation, biodiversity loss, pollution), misuse of fossil fuels and the structures of our societal and financial systems.
Reform of agriculture might be it. Agriculture is also the leading driver of deforestation (50% of pastures were forested in the past).
> large scale reforestation will probably not affect CO2 very much either
But it could, it's probably the best tool in our arsenal. And it would not only affect CO2, but many of our other problems too (droughts, biodiversity, warming ...).
https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal...
Rapid global phaseout of animal agriculture has the potential to stabilize greenhouse gas levels for 30 years and offset 68 percent of CO2 emissions this century
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00603-4
Agricultural land use, particularly for animal feed, poses the biggest obstacle to ecosystem restoration and carbon sequestration, hindering climate efforts. The potential for carbon sequestration is vast, with enough capacity to meet the entire 1.5°C carbon budget.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/04/improvin...
Improving soil could keep world within 1.5C heating target, research suggests. Better farming techniques across the world could lead to storage of 31 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide a year, data shows
https://phys.org/news/2023-04-climate-crisis-biodiversity-ap...
The climate crisis and biodiversity crisis can't be approached separately, says study
https://news.mongabay.com/2023/06/to-meet-u-n-climate-biodiv...
To meet U.N. climate, biodiversity goals, 79% of plant cover must be saved, study
https://ourworldindata.org/drivers-of-deforestation
Every year the world loses around 5 million hectares of forest. 95% of this occurs in the tropics. At least three-quarters of this is driven by agriculture – clearing forests to grow crops (upto 80% for animal feed), and raise livestock
https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets
If the world adopted a plant-based diet we would reduce global agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectares (and free up an area the size of Africa).
No we wouldn't. Everybody gets cause and effect backwards on this one. They see that we're using essentially all of our arable land for food production and draw the conclusion that's how much is needed to produce the amount of food we currently produce.
But it's actually the other way around. We use all the land available because that's the cheapest way to produce the amount of food we need. If we had more land, we'd use it and food would be cheaper. If we had less land we'd produce the same amount of food, but it would be more expensive.
For an extreme example, we could probably feed 8 trillion people on the same amount of land by covering all of our arable land with greenhouses.
So, while we can definitely get creative with land use, we also need to consider the costs and environmental impacts.
It would not be so bad, imho. Industrial ag might be effective (from the economic viewpoint, very destructive from the environmental one), but not as much as producers of that stuff would like us to beliveve. And if we manage to deplete our soils even further, then even industrial ag wouldn't be able to do much.
We could and should change the way we farm, while preserving comparable yields. It might be necessary to learn farming again, or invent new machinery. There are dozens of methods we could utilize (syntropic, natural, veganic farming, permaculture, food forests, nitrogen fixing plants / trees, companion planting, etc.), and new ones would be found.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/jo...
"The analysis we present here offers a new perspective, based on organic yield data collected from over 10,000 organic farmers representing nearly 800,000 hectares of organic farmland. Averaged across all crops, organic yield averaged 80% of conventional yield. However, several crops had no significant difference in yields between organic and conventional production, and organic yields surpassed conventional yields for some hay crops."
15 thousand years ago Canada was under 3 kilometers of ice. Now it is home to 40 million people and covered in wildlife.
The human population went from 2 million to 8 billion during this warming period.
All the evidence points to a warmer planet supporting more life, not less.
current population 50.000.000 population in 1950: 6 191 000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sudan
I'd say they've been thriving.
You mean wildfire? Bad autocorrect. /s
A fast enough change will:
- Make places where large numbers of people currently live uninhabitable due to temperature and sea levels
- Kill off most plants and animals because the ones in a given place won't be adapted to the new climate, even if theoretically the climate in other places would now be suited to them, in a way that will take millions of years to recover from.
Simply saying "warmer is better" is utterly missing the point.
Where is the evidence that the trend is ending?
An airliner lands on a runway and smoothly decelerates from 150 MPH to zero over 10,000 feet. This is just fine.
An airliner does the same deceleration over 10 feet. Everyone on board dies in a huge fireball.
Even for neutral or beneficial changes, the rate matters.
https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/what-is-the-sixth-mass...
[0]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5...
[1]: https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/10/26/lets-come-clean...
I think it's more accurate to say that consumer-side regulation is not a solution. I'm willing to bet there are tons of industries out there that can significantly reduce their energy usage, but it's either undesirable from a profit perspective or infeasible from a cost perspective.
That said, the "obvious" solution at this point seems to be larger supplies of non-carbon-releasing power generation (e.g. green or nuclear energy).
As with food calories: either for an individual or a population group, if you don't have enough, more is very, very much better.
This is not the same as more being always better. Sometimes the same or less in a smarter implementation produces better outcomes, and sometimes it takes a regulatory shove to get there.
Societies that require everyone to have a car just to have a basic acceptable level of mobility and participation, and which expect even moderately high performers to fly multiple times a year, case in point. Huge amounts of energy deployed for marginally better outcomes.
The mistake is in observing a strong positive correlation on part of the curve, and extrapolating that to interpret it as a linear relationship.
There are parts of the world which still need a lot more deployable energy. Getting household white goods to the majorities in poorer countries, etc. The same additional amount in the hands of the top 80% or so of Western hands would be frittered away to no noticeable benefit - we could get by with a lot less.
We could, but getting by with less out of choice is much better than getting by with less out of deprivation (like you said, "if you don't have enough, more is very, very much better"). And if your solution involves a large group of people depriving themselves to benefit those on another side of the world, I'm afraid there's no historical evidence to suggest that it will work even a little bit.
> sometimes it takes a regulatory shove to get there.
Almost all the time, additional powers granted to the government for that regulatory shove are not relinquished. Virtually all the time, a government that is powerful enough eventually becomes tyrannical. We have to weigh that very real possibility against the cost of what appears to be inefficient outcomes.
This does get more complicated when it's a societal level choice. You might feel subjectively energy-deprived at a very different point to me. At the same time though, a well-designed low-energy regime isn't perceived by its citizens as despotic. There's very little call (nowadays) to smash Houston-style freeways through Europe's semi-pedestrianised neighbourhoods. Curiously, this was not the case in lower-information times, but the intersection of high bandwidth/discoverability and walkability is a much bigger topic.
Now I'm old enough to remember Eastern Bloc totalitarianism, and I find the current Gen Z fashion/fetish of all things DDR/Soviet vaguely tragic, but the outcome of the path we're on right now is at least equivalent to tyranny, at least for the three billion or so people at the pointy end of it all.
Despotic it may not be, yet people vote with their feet. Way more Europeans leave their delightfully walkable cities to make a living in Houston than the other way around[0]. 650k Germans, 180k French, and 90k Dutch lived in the US in 2017, compared to 140k, 50k, and 30k Americans living in the respective countries.
And despite the ugliness of Houston's monstrous freeways, it at least grows and takes newcomers: Metro Houston nearly doubled (grew 70%) from 2000 to 2020, compared to (the metros of) Berlin only 5%, Paris 13%, and Amsterdam 14%.
Broadly, I see current European policy as a defensive posture, one looking to maintain things as they are in all aspects: climate, population, wealth. There doesn't appear to be the same appetite for change and growth. It's as though they've decided that the way things are now is the best it'll ever be, and anything more advanced (that is, requiring more energy expended per capita) is somehow immoral. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it.
[0]: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/interactives/global-migra...; obviously, I don't mean literally Houston itself.
Paris, London and Berlin of 2023 are markedly different in so many ways to, say, 1983. Berlin was in two different countries back then, and if you tried to cross, you died. Much of London was still semi-derelict from WW2 and post-war economic changes.
Perhaps a history measured in millennia means a little more patience around change. Perhaps Europeans don't see the struggle for more wealth as the most important thing.
And looking at life expectancy trends in the developed world (as a very crude proxy for wellbeing).. perhaps they might be on to something.
‘I Don’t Want to Be Here Anymore.’ The Economic Cost of Houston’s Heat (wsj.com)
Making energy efficiency a priority concern often leads to overall better systems. Smaller, quieter, doing more with less and doing it better.
(Otherwise we'd all be posting on Presler Pentium D's.. dual Netburst all the way /s)
really? lighting alone is a huge sector for unrealized power savings, in all categories.
Do you have some sources I can read about this? I find it hard to believe that large consumers of light haven't already switched to LEDs given the financial incentive to do so, and on the consumer side, the transition has already been made in most of the world that has lighting.
If I crank up the wave generator in a wave pool, I would get both taller waves and shallower water. Cranking up the heat retaining gases in the atmosphere is going to make both weather extremes more likely.
[1] I say might, because there's uncertainty around this. I do know, with absolute certainty that redistributing - say - your organs to multiple people who need transplants would definitely be a 'net plus', but you don't see me making such bloodless utilitarian arguments.
Whereas we have exactly zero historical precedent to know whether or not climate change will even be a 'net plus'.
(I do know that organ redistribution would definitely be a net plus, though. We kill one person, we save the lives of N people, the calculus seems to add up to me...)
My point exactly! If you respect Chesterton's fence, we shouldn't make radical changes to the status quo without clear and convincing proof that the change is worth the cost. Fossil fuels, as bad as they are, also brought up living standards for literally billions of people. There are still billions of people who have yet to enjoy Western standards of living. We shouldn't handicap their growth by demonizing fossil fuels before alternatives are ready.
At the same time that we've been flooding the atmosphere with carbon with nations around the world industrializing (1970-2019), climate-related deaths around the world shrank to one-third, while the human population doubled[0]. Not one-third in rate, that's one-third in absolute number. Is that the "climate catastrophe" you're talking about? The IPCC released its first report in 1990, and deaths of climate has only decreased since then, mainly due to the improving ability of developing nations to better master their environment -- again, via cheap energy enabled by fossil fuels.
I'm not the one with mental gymnastics and blind spots if you cannot acknowledge the instrumental role that fossil fuels have played in getting humanity to this point, and the inability of current renewable energy technology to replace it wholesale.
You're also presenting a laughably false dichotomy for an alternative. I have an incredibly hard time imagining that you honestly believe that to be the only alternative for our current trajectory.
Given that most of the world's land is in the northern two thirds of the globe[0], it seems more likely than not that eventually it will be a net plus in arable land and overall agricultural output. Other commenters, of course, have a good point in how pleasant that transitional period will be.
[0]: https://www.ecoclimax.com/2016/08/land-mass-at-each-longitud...
It is also the case that a large part of the world is simply not built to withstand such temperatures, and using more energy to accommodate that means putting more heat into the atmosphere.
Yes, that's a thermodynamic certainty. But the moment Homo sapiens left the year-round pleasant high plains of East Africa, we were going to need energy; you can't blame the caveman for lighting a stick on fire to keep himself warm.
> a large part of the world is simply not built to withstand such temperatures
People live in some truly inhospitable places, some cold, some hot, and have done so since before modern conveniences. Unless the plan is to make sure everyone in the world lives in places where you naturally don't need (or want) heat or air conditioning, the extra heat in the atmosphere is the price we must pay.
Infrastructure in London was melting last summer, lots of our infrastructure will have to be rebuilt, which is severely inefficient, and will require even more energy.
Climate scientists agree that if the world stopped all carbon emissions today, at the snap of a magical finger, the planet will continue to warm for the foreseeable future. It seems to me then that the correct path out is through, not backwards. And "through" involves building and rebuilding, using whatever energy sources are economical. By all means, bring renewables in that fold, but renewables alone are far from sufficient.
It's not just a matter of everyone driving Teslas instead of F-250s, or indeed even of everyone cramming into electric-powered city buses or walking instead of using automobiles. The primary industries are all still powered by vast amounts of fossil fuels: the huge mining trucks, farm tractors, and backhoes that produce the real things that real people need to consume to survive, have such high energy density requirements that there are no viable electric alternatives yet.
When the jet-stream splits, air from Sahara gets trapped between the now two or three streams, and cannot escape. This creates a heat dome that we can’t manipulate and change.
[1] https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/sep/nobel-prize-winning-econ...
In any case, yes, the Nobel Prize committee for Economics is made up of eminent economists, who are indeed probably best thought of as small-c conservative small-p politicians, rather than academics in the tradtional sense.
More thorough critique: https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/The_app...
Anyway, they gave a Nobel to Al Gore who made some pretty wacky claims that have failed to materialize, so it's not like the Nobel Committee has a spotless track record.
Those who take climate change seriously should have gone all in on nuclear, but somehow there was enough of an overlap between that group and anti-nuclear activists that it never happened. That's what's truly baffling.
More and cheaper energy is quite literally the solution to all of humanity's physical problems. I don't care if the summers get hotter or winters get colder, if we have abundant, cheap, stable, clean energy from nuclear sources. Barring that, abundant, cheap, stable, and regrettably unclean energy from fossil fuels is the second best option. But what some in the developed world has chosen is stasis, degrowth, and decay instead.
I may be ignorant, but you don't seem to be offering any viable alternatives to my ignorance.
What? No. That makes no sense. Human development includes a lot of things that have nothing to do with that ridiculous and narrow definition.
>Those who take climate change seriously should have gone all in on nuclear, but somehow there was enough of an overlap between that group and anti-nuclear activists that it never happened. That's what's truly baffling.
Follow the money: https://atomicinsights.com/how-important-has-oil-money-been-...
>Barring [nuclear energy], abundant, cheap, stable, and regrettably unclean energy from fossil fuels is the second best option.
What about increasing renewable energy options? What about increasing carbon efficiency by introducing it as a concept into markets via a carbon tax significant enough to drive innovation and behavior change? What about increasing city density and improving subways and trains? What about reducing meat consumption?
What other concept so concisely captures the difference between how our primitive ape ancestors lived, to how cavemen lived, to how the ancient cultures lived, to how we live now? Or how countries at different stages of development now are to each other?
The Human Development Index correlates highly with per capita energy expenditure[0]. It's basically a necessary but not sufficient component of human development; otherwise you'd see countries in the lower-right quadrant of that chart. I find it surprising that you have such a strong reaction to this.
> Follow the money
Of course, Big Oil lobbied for their interests. I'm sure solar executives spend money on lobbying, too. Doesn't mean that the public, especially the interested and motivated public ("those who take climate change seriously"), should have been duped by it.
No one is absolving Big Oil for their part in swaying public opinion, but the public should also grow a backbone.
> What about [...]
They're all good ideas. My point is that good ideas don't happen in a vacuum. Everything carries with it an opportunity cost. "Increasing renewable energy options" isn't something that happens as a result of someone waving a wand; it's accomplished using limited time and resources that could be used elsewhere. So when you implement those ideas by taking away from fossil fuels, you had better make sure that the tradeoff is worth it.
> What about increasing city density and improving subways and trains?
On this point especially, I'm all for reforming zoning so that cities can become more dense. This would alleviate so many problems in America's highly desirable cities that are laughably sparse compared to other world cities (but of course, the precious "neighborhood character"...).
And sure, let's improve transit systems. But how? Take a look at the MTA's budget[1]: only a quarter is paid for by fares, meaning that people who don't use the subway already pay for three-quarters of the MTA. Even pre-pandemic, fares were a little over a third[2]. And this is in the area with the highest transit usage percentage by far out of anywhere in the country; the one place where they should be able to make it work!
So it appears that there is already a high degree of subsidization of subways and trains. Given how rapidly the ridership experience is deteriorating in almost all American transit systems, it seems irresponsible to put even more tax dollars in that direction, without first addressing the issues that make people not want to ride them very much.
[0]: https://visualizingenergy.org/does-more-energy-use-increase-...
[1]: http://web.mta.info/budgetdashboard/Budget_Transparencyd.htm...
[2]: https://new.mta.info/sites/default/files/2019-03/MTA-2019-Ad...
One is bigger than the other.
> the public should also grow a backbone
:)
> zoning & public transport
Let's take inspiration in Europe or Japan, not in the USA.
You want more of public transport, not less. And you want it ideally (almost) free, omnipresent and reliable, to let more people use it.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/apr/25/story-cities-...
That chart has major outliers on the top right. Most countries toward the top are clustered close to the left. Yes, the top left is rounded off and everyone at the top uses more resources than everyone at the bottom, but the outliers are enough to skew an average and make the effect appear larger than it is.
My reading is that several energy intensive countries can significantly reduce their energy expenditure while maintaining a high level of human development.
One of those rare "have your cake and eat it too" moments.
I just want to ensure that the electricity that powers those heat pumps doesn't get more expensive as a result of the shift away from nuclear and fossil fuels. There's some preliminary research to indicate that more renewable power in the grid results in lower wholesale prices[0], but the relationship isn't very strong, and it's likely that Europe soon will (if not already) meet the point of diminishing returns. After all, there are only so many places you can put wind turbines, solar panels, or dams.
[0]: https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2022/Engli...