Crucial system of ocean currents is collapsing; ‘affects everyone on the planet’
cnn.com
cnn.com
Context: Collapse around the middle of the century or as soon as 2025. (That’s a big error bar.)
(CNN) A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and “affect every person on the planet.”
A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature, found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.
“Sprinkling basalt over soil could remove huge amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere”
https://physicsworld.com/a/sprinkling-basalt-over-soil-could...
Am I misunderstanding something?
We emitted 37 billion tons in 2021.
This solution would offset 2.5 billion tons (~7%) of our annual emissions. And to do that we would need to put 5KG of basalt per square meter on 1/3 of all land available on earth. Isn't it completely crazy and unrealistic?
China's per person emissions are far lower than most industrialised countries. Qatar is at the top with almost 40 tons of CO2 per person per year.
China leads the world in greenhouse gas emissions, double that of the USA.
China, USA, and India contribute 42.6% total emissions, while the bottom 100 countries only account for 2.9%.
https://www.wri.org/insights/interactive-chart-shows-changes...
Do what you can. Live sustainably. Vote righteously. Have consideration for the future.
At this point it's more a question of what we can do to prepare ourselves for the fallout, we've done our waving to the moments when we could do something as they passed by.
The real question is what will destroy the ocean's food chain first, China's overfishing, the acidity and temperature increases, or the collapse of currents. Taking bets now.
this is non-sense according to the ipcc models
for 1.5C, we still have a budget of 200BN tonCO2e
for 2C, we have about 1TN tonCO2e
for 2.5C, 2TN ton, is within current trajectory of progress
we currently emmit about 50BN tons/annum
All of the above are bad, but degrees (ha! pun!) matter
> China's overfishing
Bashing the developing world is not helpful. The US account for a massive chunk of historical emissions and excess consumption.
> we currently emmit about 50BN tons/annum
So, 4 years till we definitively get there? That honestly sounds worse because this was a hypothetical, we absolutely cannot stop our emissions to any meaningful degree if we want to continue living in a society.
And even if we magically did stop all direct emissions, there are secondary warming processes that have started and cannot be stopped. The oceans absorb a quarter of all CO2 which they will start to outgass once the atmosphere concentration stops increasing. The melted glacial masses have reduced the planet's reflectivity, increasing the greenhouse effect. Permafrost thawing is causing methane releases, etc.
> Bashing the developing world is not helpful. The US account for a massive chunk of historical emissions and excess consumption.
Oh my bad, do keep doing it until all the fish are completely gone and we all starve to death because dumb people did things centuries ago. Yes the developed world has an obligation to assist in all ways possible to make sure progress and development can continue in a clean and sustainable way, but past crimes don't condone present ones.
I mentioned China here specifically since they're an outlier in the topic, with vast ocean going fishing fleets emptying stock in even less developed countries that need it, i.e. Indonesia, Africa.
If you think paper straws and tree planting is dumb and useless (which I can totally relate to), don’t use that to mock the whole enterprise but pressure all the politicians to resist the moneyed interests and take meaningful action.
So this should be treated as this current having collapsed. It's like a building toppled, it's shaking, but not many bricks have hit the ground yet, but everybody's running.
Well, except that in this case half the people still want to believe it isn't happening.
What we really need to know is what will be happening, where, and how much.
The problem is twofold: on one side, you have those who think they can choose whether to believe in facts; on the other side, you have those who believe without understanding!
As you said, we are past the return point. This is happening, and we should be doing something that actually addresses the problems caused by the ocean currents shutting down, but too many activists will block the traffic, piss everybody off, show a sign with "STOP OIL" painted on it, accomplish nothing but fomenting the hate, and call it a day.
Improving the educational system is the only way we get there.
Our current problems:
- Climate Change (CC)
- Biodiversity Loss (BL)
- Deforestation (D)
- Water Scarcity (WS)
- Ocean Acidification (OA)
- Resource Depletion (RD)
- Pollution (P)
- Land Degradation (LD)
- Food Insecurity (FI)
- Social Inequity (SI)
We have to solve all those to have a chance to repair things. Repair too little and we'll end up as Rome did (they also tried to solve their problems when they realized they're facing the end, but did too little and paid the price). All those problems have their main culprits and plethora of solutions. It's not that we don't know what and how, but we don't have the will.
a] acknowledge that our problem is ecological overshoot, and climate change is just one of its symptoms
b] stop polluting atmosphere ... stop fossil fuels asap, stop adding unnecessary co2 + methane + n20 (CC, P)
c] stop polluting soils & water ... reform agriculture, stop animal agriculture, plant-based diets (BL, WS, OA, P)
d] stop economic drivers of exponential growth of humans ... reform political, economic & financial system, handle inequality, ubi, housing, etc. (SI, FI)
e] stop overconsumption ... degrowth, ubi, walkable cities & reform zone planning, public transport, wfh, remove subsidies for polluting & unsustainable sectors (CC, BL, D, OA, RD, P, LD, FI, SI)
f] stop overexploiting nature ... circular economy, degrowth (BL, D, RD, P)
g] store carbon - reforest, rewild (abolishment of animal ag frees up an area as big as Africa) (CC, BL, D, WS, OA, RD, P, LD, FI, SI)
h] store carbon - enable return of wildlife ... big, continuous primeval rain forests and grasslands (CC, BL, D, WS, LD)
i] store carbon - stop industrial fishing, let marine life rebound to previous levels (70-90% gone already, incl. plankton) (CC, BL, OA, SI)
I'm probably forgetting a lot. But that'd be enough to stop it and begin the path towards sustainability.
Ah yes, 80 million people vote for the guy who says that climate change is a chinese hoax and we should be burning """clean""" coal but the actual problem is the people who don't like pretending things are fine.
We need to work to minimize the number of impacts like this one. We can't prevent this one, but we can prevent the next one.
Things aren't problems until they are. If we can see them coming, we should do something about it. But the conservatively-minded always seem to want more evidence before devoting any resources to anticipation of problems.
It must be my reading comprehension that's off, but what has happened? What is "it", the ocean current collapsing?
The thing is, I don't see anywhere in the article that says it is collapsing.
"A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature, found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025."
Nowhere does it say it is in the process of collapse, at least that I could find.
Additional information, which may or may not be of interest.
There has been a good 20 years of climate hysteria to pull from. All one has to do is look at old newspapers and read the dire predictions from 2010 to have a good laugh at our sensational media.
However I wouldn't classify Nature as "sensational media", the authors of the original are a physicist and a mathematician from a well known University.
And I wouldn't call it hysteria when barely anything gets done for the actual climate at a nation state level.
To find environmental predictions that didn't happen try a google search for "Environmental Predictions that didn't happen", I promise you won't have to dig for results to find what you're looking for.
In the lists in various articles you'll find, notice that these predictions are often made by credentialed scientists from prestigious institutions, not an overhyped journalist making leaps from a scientific paper they don't understand.
One of biggest problem with the climate science is that it suffers from a selection bias. I think most people who go into that field already have their mind made up and their goal is to affirm their belief. And if they didn't, they'd be an unfunded nobody labeled a crackpot...as the skeptics/moderates often are.
I won't do you research for you. Try to find some examples, and you'll find that the scientific community has been correct. Or prove me wrong!
BECAUSE THE FUTURE VIABILITY OF THE PLANET DEPENDS ON POLITICAL DECISIONS!
The term itself has been stretched and mutilated to the point of absurdity, and especially any topic that has valid and exhaustive empirical research should be discussed in those terms and not shut down with a big taboo sticker slapped on it.
Discussion of the state of the world's climate and humans' effects on it: science.
Inventing a bunch of word games, truisms, nonsensical "decorum" rules about discussing factual evidence: political.
What's funny is we did that exact experiment right here on HN several years ago and it went predictably tits up, since everything is political in some way, because politics TOUCHES EVERYTHING.