Comment by SideburnsOfDoom | Hacker News Reader

Comment by SideburnsOfDoom | Hacker News Reader

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SideburnsOfDoom

You can't fuel the one on the infrastructure for the other, and vice versa. EV charging infrastructure is happening, hydrogen infrastructure isn't. So Toyota's bet on hydrogen isn't paying off. Was that your question?

If your question is "why isn't Toyota just catching up since the differences are so minor in my mind?" maybe ask them, but we haven't seen it happen yet. I've driven Toyotas and liked it, I'd welcome more Toyota full EVs, but they seem to be struggling with full EVs so maybe it's not that minor in practice. That's the main thing that I can tell you.

I'm sure you can google on the topic, takes that are sympathetic https://insideevs.com/news/650150/toyota-says-ev-extremists-... mixed https://slate.com/business/2023/01/toyota-electric-vehicles-... and negative https://thedriven.io/2023/01/30/toyota-faces-disaster-unless...

I'll add a couple of things that I do know: car companies that have been in business for decades and operate at huge scale in big factory assumbly lines across global supply chains are, as I said above, "lumbering beasts", the new models are planned multiple years in advance. They don't turn on a dime, changes in Toyota management this year translate to new models on sale in 2026 or thereabouts. VW, BMV etc have a head start, as they have EV models out right now, and not the 1st generation of them either - e.g. I see VW ID3s locally, and the VW ID6 will be out by end 2023. Toyota's 2026 model will compete with an ID6 successor. And a Polestar 4 successor, etc. This is hard, from a standing start.

You mentioned the Prius. Toyota owns this market, sure. I see lots of them around, it's the vehicle of choice for "minicab" private hire taxis. But for Toyota, that's also an barrier to doing anything that takes sales away from that market.

If it was so easy to pivot to full EVs, would people be saying "Toyota faces disaster unless new CEO performs miracle" ?

I was just saying I don't think they are as far behind as many think. They seem to have all the components to make an EV.

As to why they haven't executed and delivered a car, who knows. Could be lack of profitability at the projected numbers they could sell vs cost to bring up a manufacturing line - in addition to, as you mentioned, cannibalization of more profitable products. VW, BMW, ... etc. are they making money or just eating losses selling EVs right now?

Maybe they aren't rushing it, it is a relatively new type of "engine/fuel" for them, and they want all the kinks and gotchas worked out before they release something to preserve their reputation for reliability.

That said, just because they haven't released anything doesn't necessarily mean they can't.

Well, we will wait and see, I'd be very happy to see Toyota join the party and finally release a good EV.

It is not quite right to say that "they haven't released anything", there is e.g, the Toyota bZ4X, widely regarded as a really bad car (1). And other EVs that have made no impact (2)

1) https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/26/toyota-bz4x-first-revie...

2) https://www.toyota.co.uk/electric

> It is not quite right to say that "they haven't released anything", there is e.g, the Toyota bZ4X, widely regarded as a really bad car (1). And other EVs that have made no impact (2)

So technically they have "joined the party". Granted they don't seem fully committed yet and don't seem to be trying very hard - based on the review you linked, they have QC problems ... on the wheels; and they haven't put much marketing muscle behind the others. At least they have a foot in the door.

Technically yes, and _only_ technically yes. I don't see Toyota bZ4Xs on the roads, no-one is looking forward to them. Do you know what a "compliance car" or "compliance vehicle" is? It's not a serious intent to be in that market.

Except we do know why because they have written blog posts about it. They would rather make 100 hybrids than 10 BEV's. They think it's better environmentally and they haven't said this part, but probably a lot more profitable as well.

Then where are their PHEVs? Their Prime vehicles have long waitlists and are produced in relatively small numbers. Either they can't make the margins with them or their access to battery supplies is very limited.

They have an electrified version of pretty much every car they sell.

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