How this works: new SaaS startup shows up and shows $10M EBITDA to investors. This does not reflect $5M in SBC.
According to industry averages, bankers apply average (lets say 10x) EBITDA multiple and derive valuation of $100M and invest funds based on that calculation.
Had company paid cash salary instead of RSUs, firms' EBITDA would have been $5M and valuation of $50M - a half of original pitched value
Obviously this is just a naiive textbook example, and actual valuations are more complex and involve several ways of deriving value and multiples, but in general RSU is viewed favorably mainly because it improves Cash Flow from Operations and EBITDA numbers - in addition to creating incentives to employees
So it’s the same story and is effectively a lottery ticket.
For example, literally the day before I started at my last company, their stock went from $120 to $40
So yes it’s a lotto ticket
You could sign job offer with $1M in RSUs at $100/sh for 10k shares, but you would have vested only $500k worth of shares if price decreases to $50/sh a year after, when you reach cliff vest
So selling at vest does not decrease your risk between RSU grant date and vest date