or as fight club said
> Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one.
Turns out, it's usually better to be fast and break things, over trying to be reliable.
"Use our futzel service, you will be able to futz around all day long, and it won't go down!"
In terms of # of correct guesses, sure. In terms of damage from guessing incorrectly over time, usually not.
The trick is to separate processes - A CSS update probably isn't very risky, and an auth or login update probably is. Don't bundle them into "website updates".
Run ahead with the layout changes and spend some time on failure-planning for the auth change.
It is not to be applied to destructive changes to systems users care about, and none of the companies named in the 2017 book by that title use that engineering tactic on their flagship products because real people care now.