These kind of things need to be public goods instead of private companies. For that reason, I'm much more inclined to bet that Mastodon or some other community owned venture will be the true successor to Twitter.
* Mastodon for tech folk
* Threads for brands and celebrities
* Twitter for politics and news
For this reason I never even used Twitter but I did use other social media.
The UX of Mastodon is terrible compared to Twitter, in terms of global post search and discoverability of accounts.
And the arbitrary/political natural of fedi-blocking means I'm only seeing a subset of views on Mastodon.
I'm not saying Twitter is perfect, but I think the opposition to it seems contrived and coordinated.