Comment by somenameforme | Hacker News Reader

Comment by somenameforme | Hacker News Reader

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I think something that's increasingly clear is that OpenAI's only moat is time. Every other company, and even completely independent models, are rapidly catching up. And this is happening at the same time that OpenAI is already making claims that they're hitting diminishing returns on model size [1], as happens in literally every single neural net based field.

If Sam's Gambit succeeded, OpenAI could have potentially been granted a near absolute monopoly with the legislative reach of the US government working to imperil competitors through a Gordian knot of rules and regulations which OpenAI could have been the primary creator of, perhaps even as the head of some sort private-public 'Artificial Intelligence Accountability and Trust Division.' It really just gives one that happy feeling of bureaucrazy mixed with dystopia.

[1] - https://www.wired.com/story/openai-ceo-sam-altman-the-age-of...

> If Sam's Gambit succeeded, OpenAI could have potentially been granted a near absolute monopoly

I don't think this was ever realistic. (I don't think Altman is that politically naive.) Instead, it was marketing. It's saying you've got something so powerful it's dangerous and should be treated carefully. While everyone's debating how to treat it carefully, they concede in public that it's powerful.

>Every other company, and even completely independent models, are rapidly catching up.

I see the HN headlines like "new model approaches GPT4 in benchmarks!" but they turn out to suck when I try them. What can I use today that comes close to GPT4? Certainly not Bard.

I generally run 2 tests to gauge:

1. Write me a Python script that blah blah blah

2. Write me the lyrics to a song about blah blah blah

Only GPT4 has given me impressive results. For #2 the other models manage to rhyme (except most local models), but the rhymes on other models are really basic compared to GPT4's.

> Only GPT4 has given me impressive results

OpenAI is durable only if GPT is middlingly differentiated. If it's uncompetitive, they lose. If it's vital, they face regulation and state-sponsored competition. (I personally advocate for a Heavy Press Program [1] for training American and allied AIs.)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Press_Program

there is a related moat, lack of AI chips. I guess you could say with time more chips will be built.

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