> the yield curve didn't predict rate increases either
Neither did, by its own admission, the Fed.
Neither did, by its own admission, the Fed.
For example, the yield curve inversion has had quite good predictive ability so far, and it’s predicting a recession. If you buy the fed’s data driven approach, that means its predicting rate decreases.
In that case the long term bond market’s prediction is supported more strongly than the fed’s prediction.