https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/05/despite-high-inflati...
The housing market will be a continuous mess while policy is to consider it as a major investment asset, there's no way around that, people buy houses expecting they appreciate in value so they can sell and buy their next, bigger house. That's the dream of almost anyone I know who purchases a house, politicians who implement policies which will cause houses to lose their stratospheric value (at least in major cities across the world) will commit career suicide. There's no incentive to push houses' prices down until most people are completely squeezed out of the market: people get mortgages for a house at value X, any price below X is a loss and so they will fight tooth-and-nail for keeping their assets valued above X... Yes, it's all politics but it's an issue where there's no way out of it that isn't political, some politicians will have to sacrifice themselves, those sacrifices will create a lot of pain to whomever bought an overvalued house at current prices including people going under on their mortgage, selling at a loss, and quite a few will go into financial duress because of it.
Societies need a different housing strategy and policies to support it, the current one where housing is both a major investment asset as well as basic necessity does not work.
Well, yes, we are always at that risk... but even basic numbers are getting much worse. Depending on who you ask, about 37% of Americans (give-or-take) cannot withstand a sudden $400 expense without using debt. This is ~5% higher than it was a year before, in 2021 when it was 32%.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm
It goes without saying that there is a finite ceiling for how much debt a person can obtain. When 1/3 of the country risks hitting that ceiling with how debt use has increased, is unable to get more debt, and can't afford $400; you have a perfect recipe for extreme social unrest in the future if things don't turn around. It's made worse by inflation eating away at pay, and also the record-high APRs that credit cards are demanding; and high rates in general for debt of any kind.
Real wages are lower than their pandemic highs, but higher than they've been at any point [EDIT: before] late 2019 [1].
This description is self-contradictory. I think you mean “before” not “since”.
If you remove 2021, there's nothing particularly noteworthy about where we are right now.
It appears it's trending up from a local bottom last year, but it's still lower than most of the past decade before Covid. Also this number isn't on a per-capita basis.
Here is the personal savings rate [1][2]. We're low, but not abysmal and repairing.
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
[2] https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-saving-rate
> Personal savings are half of what they used to be before COVID while personal debt has doubled.
And assume you're saying that the average person has half as much money in the bank as they did before COVID. Your data don't support that assertion--they show that people are still saving money, just at a slower rate. Wouldn't that imply that people have more money in the bank than pre-COVID?
Anyway, spending (rather than saving) money during a period of high inflation is textbook "rational consumer" behavior, and is hardly evidence of a horrible, terrible, no good, very bad economy.
One is income statement, other is balance sheet. One is verb, other is noun. One is river, other is dam. Etc.
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
[2] https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/202...