I feel Twitter lack of moderation makes it more and more hateful, reminiscent of some usenet politics groups where conversation was impossible. There's even quite a lot of porn content. I don't know why, but I receive tons of dick pics that I'm not interested in. I tried very hard to get rid of them but was unsuccessful. I can definitely see the platform becoming unusable, while users flock to a different system for a better experience.

On the other hand, it seems some groups manage to share ideas in a positive way (e.g. cancer survivors), so it all depends on the feed algorithm, maybe most users have a postive experience. Hard to say. In any case, some minor tweaking of the feed algorithm could be enough to improve the experience.

But in the end, I think it all boils to the network effect. Will enough users migrate from Twitter to Threads. My guess is not, network effect is extremely strong. At that point, even the most upset, anti-musk, users don't seem to be leaving (which I find quite ironic).