I believe that actual experience is superior to logical reasoning with little or no data to support it.
From there, by experience, people who aren't good juniors aren't good seniors. Good juniors might never become good seniors, but bad juniors won't be good seniors.
I don't see what my life history has to do with anything, when we have all the information right here :)
Being an expert in the domain of writing code is relatively easy. Being a domain expert of your businesses value and the tradeoffs its making is very difficult. Just because people like the writing code part of the job doesn't make it the end game for the most valuable skillset.
But I must admit that this is karma. For I have had an almost identical take as you more than a decade ago. Feels like I'm looking in a mirror.