> I tend to believe that anything that has lived X years will likely still continue to exist for X more years.
I, for one, salute my 160-years-old grandma.
I, for one, salute my 160-years-old grandma.
But when you try to predict a one-off event, you need to use whatever information is available.
One very valid application of the principle above is to never make plans with your significant other that are further off in the future than the duration of the relationship. So if you have been together for two months, don't book your summer vacation with them in December.