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Comment by sharkfish | Hacker News Reader

I dunno. I re-read the article after I read your comment, and I came to a different conclusion: It is very possible we are in one of those gaps in time where if you have put in your 10,000 hours, you can leverage them. You can be one of those lucky ones.

His point is, then, how do you know you aren't coming of age during a lucky time, when the old goes out the window? It is quite possible this is that "garage electronics" time when nobody has any money and some of us figure out unique ways to save and as a result, make millions.

You can bet, SOMEONE will. We are going to hear, in about 4-5 years, of someone down and out who "did it" during 2009 after they got laid off and were living in their parents' basement. Instead of shooting their employer, they proved everyone wrong and succeeded.

I am one of the jaded and cynical, however. This is just a "glass is half full" perspective.

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I don't really disagree with anything you wrote. This might be one of those times, and you might be able to become the next captains of industry. But then again, any time might be one of those times. The statement isn't predictive.

I think the article went off the tracks when it theorized that now is one of those times, based only on the observations that Rockefeller et al. got rich when they were young, which also happened to be during a time of great economic turbulence. So I suppose the logic is that since the economy is currently screwed, and since there are currently 20-year-olds working hard somewhere on a business, this is the time when we're going to produce the next Rockefeller. QED, right?

My point is only that Gladwell's thesis revolves around the central role of chance in success, and this article seems to want to take his examples, and torture them into some kind of prediction about the future. I think that's a bit silly.

Porsche just made a few billion from VW stock. (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/28/business/views29.php)

Bill Gates made his fortune from one deal with IBM.

These are the type of deals that get made when people are in the middle of a disruptive cycle.

I think timr's point is that you'll only know AFTER the fact that you're lucky.

To try and extrapolate a single (and dubious) data point in history to the present time, and then conclude that this is the right time for 20 year olds to be lucky, is IMHO wildly misplaced optimism. You can't "time" luck... maybe it'll be the elderly who come out of this lucky...

I found the article useful in two ways, neither of which rely on the accuracy of the prediction.

One, if you've already made the decision to start a company, then it doesn't matter whether this is a good time or not. However, it could be motivating to think of this as a great time. When I think that way, that there are enormous opportunities for me to solve, I behave more confidently and spend more time doing rather than fretting. I think I'm not the only person who recognizes the role that emotion plays in their own success.

Two, I thought it was an interesting thought experiment to think about whether the rules have changed, what the changed rules are, what forces are driving them, and what are some of the repercussions? She doesn't get into them, but that doesn't mean we couldn't.

Off the top of my head:

1) Tighter credit. People who are bad situations will eventually work themselves out, but we could be in a situation where people and companies keep a more sustainable level of debt. What would the effect be?

2) Baby boomers get old. Supposedly they're going to retire, but their savings just went kaput. Are they going to keep working? Are they going to make the younger generation pay for their retirement and healthcare?

3) Energy covering climate and demand. Environmentalists are pushing for conservation but Vinod Khosla thinks we're going to solve it in a way that makes today's energy look expensive. What does a world of extremely expensive energy look like? What does a world of extremely cheap energy look like?

4) Internet related, dropping costs. This isn't as big as the first three but effects me personally. Where are the big plays? What about small plays that add up (37signals)?

Please re-read my post.

I don't say we are pre-ordained to be lucky.

I do say "...or you can look at this as a new economy. How will it be remade? What do you know now that will be wrong for the future? What will be right?" It is your choice to decide if you are feeling lucky.

I do say that this isn't about 20-year olds. Rather, it is about those whose mindset is not set by the old ways; those who can look at an idea/time differently and take advantage of it.

I do say that I am feeling lucky, and I am ready to look at this in a different way. History will tell if I am lucky, and I will be on the Forbes list in 1000 years.

Yes indeed, we can be sure PR will guarantee that we hear about such a thing.... heck! We can even hope it actually happened!

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