> What are your thoughts on the city's future? I've seen a lot of doomerish articles of late, many did seem to leave during Covid etc. however I still know many who happily look to buy property or relocate to the city right now. Do you believe the core innovation drive is in trouble, threatening it becoming a new Detroit? (Or even just the city itself, while the suburbs continue to boom and do well in the future as the city collapses - like Metrodetroit?)
A city with vibrant culture, extreme wealth, and great architecture? That was Detroit in the 50s. A sudden outflow of labor? That could be SF with remote work, AI, and a tech downturn
The “weather” and “geography” are bogus arguments. The entire state of California has great weather and geography. Nothing sets SF apart.
People claim that SF is a boom and bust town as if it’s some force of nature. It isn’t. Claiming that there will be another boom is wishful thinking.
Couldn't have said this better myself. Tired of people saying there's gonna be another boom as if it's a sure thing.
Is it going to recover? Can't guarantee it, but the city has faced worse. It may not recover for a few years or a decade, but it will be back eventually. In the meantime, is it still worth visiting and living in? I think so, weather is great, nature and setting is great, still lots of weird and interesting things to do. Crime is up, and it is unfortunate that you can't leave anything visible in your car most places in the city, but it was like that before the pandemic also.
I think your observation of the suburbs doing well is astute. For my peers (mid-30s couples with dual incomes), COVID wasn't a time to leave the bay area, just a time to leave the SF rental market for the SF suburbs and buy a house. So many of my coworkers and former coworkers bought houses in 2020 and 2021 while interest rates were low. Almost no one bought in SF proper but lots of people within a 30min BART ride of the city and still go into the city on weekends or work hybrid model on weekdays. FIDI and SOMA east of 4th are still fine, albeit quieter.
I am not sure about the history of detroit but SF single family housing real-estate is doing just fine, there doesn't seem to be an exodus of people selling their houses if they actually have a house in SF. If anything high interest rates are actually keeping people from leaving SF. Also, generally the neighborhoods where there are single family homes (which is (un)fortunately most of the city), are pretty vibrant still. Except for maybe the mission.
It seems like the biggest exodus from SF was the younger rental market, single people in their 20s. The crowds feel a bit older than they used to, but then again that could just be my circles.
So generally I am a long term believer in the City. But it will probably get worse before it gets better.
ZIRP is on pause for the foreseeable future. SF industry has basically relied on this. AirBnB included of course.
Crime, homeless, drugs, businesses pulling out in SF is undeniably worse every year. You don’t need to agree it’s as good or bad as anyone else, but reasonable people have to see it is indeed a downward trend.
As to Detroit… MetroSF isn’t farmland. And having lived in both, there is a lot more hard industry in Detroit now than will ever be in SF. IDK.
I can not possibly imagine moving back there now with remote work.
There was a lot of vitriol directed at Chesa Boudin using questionably skewed interpretations of city statistics. The consensus among those in the know is that it was largely motivated by commercial real estate and other reactionary interests reacting to the perceived influences of his advocacy (note that DAs don't enjoy the privilege of "policies" despite what the loudmouths would have you believe) on real estate prices, when in reality we were living through a pandemic that kept people at home on Zoom and made tech offices largely redundant.
Many retail giants also pulled out of SF because foot traffic was way down and profits dwindled (again an effect primarily of the pandemic), but the way it was framed in the news was as purely-anecdotal (i.e. no hard data provided because none is collected) anonymously-sourced claims about "shoplifting epidemics".
Those with too much time on their hands -- especially techies who enjoy the free time during their workdays to rile themselves up doomscrolling local news websites -- ranted about it on Twitter and, if especially incensed, at their councilmembers, and the shadowy big money local behemoths rode that wave of narrative and perception to wage war on progressive efforts all across the city.
No one I know who left SF and comes back to visit say anything like what you suggest, but then again they've always repped SF and left for reasons that were in conflict with their evergreen love of the city and what it stands for in our cultural consciousness.
"questionably skewed interpretations of city statistics" -- LOL. Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?
"It was all the pandemic!" Right, right. LOL again.
Boudin lost by 60-40. Face it: it wasn't propaganda from big money; people just hated him. The DA does, indeed, have the "privilege" of deciding who to charge; what bail to demand, if any; and what plea deals to make; and that's why George Soros poured so much money into DA races all over the country. If the DAs were just automatons no one would bother.