US EV goals will require up to $127B to install 28M chargers by 2030: NREL
utilitydive.com
utilitydive.com
For public charging they estimate that current commitments are on track:
> Existing announcements put the United States on a path to meet 2030 investment needs. This report estimates that a $31–$55-billion cumulative capital investment in publicly accessible charging infrastructure is necessary to support a mid-adoption scenario of 33 million PEVs on the road by 2030. As of March 2023, we estimate $23.7 billion of capital has been announced for publicly accessible light-duty PEV charging infrastructure through the end of the decade,8 including from private firms, the public sector (including federal, state, and local governments), and electric utilities.
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/data-gas-inflat...
It’s also energy dollars that now stay in the US versus whatever portion would’ve gone to OPEC or another foreign petroleum seller (although a fraction of those dollars might make their way to foreign investors in US generation).
The gains happen faster if your target gasoline superusers first [2] [3].
TLDR you’re paying to spin the flywheel up.
[1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-...
[2] https://coltura.org/gasoline-superusers-2-report/
[3] https://coltura.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Infographic-G...
Quick google search found: https://www.cbs8.com/article/traffic/gas-prices/gap-between-...
Which yields:
1. 54 cents in state excise tax: among the highest in the nation
2. 18.4 cents in federal excise tax
3. 23 cents for California's cap-and-trade program to lower greenhouse gas emissions
4. 18 cents for the state's low-carbon fuel programs
5. 2 cents for underground gas storage fees
6. An average of 3.7% in state and local sales taxes
Removing 3, 4, and 5 seems like a pretty decent gain. But the others are pretty hefty. Unsure how these are added into EVs?
https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/california-starts-charging-ev...
1. CA State Tax - $9.72
2. Fed. Excise - $3.31
6. Local Taxes - ($2.00/gal * .037) - $1.33
Which adds up to $14.36 in taxes every time I pay for a full tank. I use about a tank a week. So, I buy 52 tanks of gas a year. This works out to $746.72. I also pay car registration of ~$300 a year.
From the article you're only paying a one-time fee of $100. The registration fee is also capped $175 first year. My total tax burden (gas taxes + reg) is $1,046.72 and yours is only $275 for the first year, $175 after.
I intentionally left out the low carbon programs in my calculation to make a fair comparison. The taxes above that are paid are required to fund roads, schools, etc. None of which you're paying on your EV. You're saving $871.72 from not paying for these things.
Also, I asked chat GPT how much it costs to charge an electric vehicle at home. It gave me the formula: 60 kWh x $0.20/kWh = $12. So this would be $624/year. So assuming gas w/o taxes @ $2/gal my gas guzzler is costing me $1872 a year. $1248 more than your EV. This is some good cost savings.
So including the taxes above you are not paying and your cheaper charge rate, your total cost savings is around $2,119.72. This is a pretty decent cost savings.
So you're correct, EV vs. gas is definitely cheaper. But, the point that I'm making is that nearly 40% of your cost savings accrues from not paying taxes on necessary things like roads and schools. The cost effectiveness of EV's has more to do with tax policy than the underlying efficiency gains technology. Ideally they will become cheaper over time, but the significant cost of taxes to fund the government programs we need is going to remain.
China can build high speed rail at $20M per mile. If we actually built the lines instead of just political graft we could build 6350 miles of high speed rail for that price. That is coast to coast rail 2.5 times.
EVs also increase road wear and tear by a large factor, since they are so heavy. Trains have much lower wear and tear maintenance costs.
If you couple this with some densification by removing zoning, the health savings alone from people walking more would pay for high speed rail.
But no we will build 28M electric chargers for cars instead.
That’s the counts for Level 1 and 2 chargers. Level 1 chargers are “a regular outlet and a $150 EVSE”. Level 2 is “a larger outlet/breaker and a $500-750 EVSE”.
The projected $72B for that portion seems crazy high to me to be honest.
Also, labor is expensive these days. It's not going to be a single person doing the entire install alone.
This is the standard quo in any first tier country today.
:-/
So for right person, right question, how to defend investments.