How much does your GitHub account affect your chances to get your first job?

For someone who's looking for my first tech job, I apply for a lot of positions but never even make it the interview, and I know there are a lot of factors, but one thing I think is hurting my chances is the state of my github account. It's basically empty except for a few portfolio projects, no recent or consistent contributions or nothing. Am I correct to think this is something that is hurting my chances? And if so, what do I do? Just commit any code I write to github so that recruiters see that I code regularly? Also, if I keep most repositories private, will that be bad?