For curiosity's sake I wanted to estimate the probability of getting to the front page with a show hn. The easy but terrible way is to just look at a few new show hn from yesterday and look at how many got more than 50 points.

The answer ~4% (3/79). Please expect gigantic error bars.

Links checked:

2/30 from https://news.ycombinator.com/shownew?next=36572237&n=61

1/30 from https://news.ycombinator.com/shownew?next=36564410&n=91

0/19 from https://news.ycombinator.com/shownew?next=36556170&n=121