I think you're on the right track, but I'd argue it's even more abstract than this. Assuming a transfer represents uncertainty in arrival time, do you want it early or later in your trip? If the transfer is near the end of your journey, it means the uncertainty is ahead of you for most of the trip. Even if the early part of your trip is going smoothly, you still don't know if you'll arrive on time. On the other hand, if you get your transfer over with early in your trip, you can experience the rest of your journey with more confidence you'll arrive as expected. It's not so much that you have more options closer to home, it's that less of your trip is in the uncertainty zone.