If ActivityPub wants to keep riding the wave it has now they should start investigating ways to support this. I think more and more people are getting fed up with centralized platforms / not owning their data.
If ActivityPub wants to keep riding the wave it has now they should start investigating ways to support this. I think more and more people are getting fed up with centralized platforms / not owning their data.
Given the meteoric rise of TikTok, I don't think there is any sign of this being true outside a small techy bubble. At least, not as a percentage (that is, the growth in the number of people who are fed up with centralized platforms is dwarfed by the growth in the number of people who are fine with centralized platforms / not owning their data).
Network effects are real, but appear insignificant until they’re in our faces. The fact that it’s currently a minority is expected, that’s just how network effects work. It was just a minority on Reddit when Digg was the place to be as well.
Obviously I don’t have any magical predictive abilities. But the “vocal minority” argument has bitten a lot of people before. Including those that have stake in the game and are paranoid about competitors.
And they shouldn't. Part of being a kid is exploring interactions and learning from mistakes. Can you imagine growing up in a society where your account follows you from elementary school and anyone can review it? Even if you are the utmost in social propriety, but have a hobby that you enjoy, someone is going to disapprove of it or your fandom and penalize you accordingly. Post too much? Penalized. Post too little? Penalized.
The world is not a fair or equitable place, and so, we should not design systems that enable bullies.
For instance, a fire department may switch from Twitter because it’s rate limited. A community for visually impaired may move from Reddit because it’s dragging its feet with accessibility. Journalists and media houses may switch because they get censored by a billionaire who’s on a quid pro quo relationship with entities they investigate. Regular “content creators” may switch when they get copyright strikes or demonetized by an automated system. In all of these cases, the small minority of “providers” take a large amount of “consumers” with them. Cumulative resentment looks just like apathy, until suddenly it doesn’t.
Most people are followers. Other liberties like freedom of the press are inapplicable to most people, directly. But the indirect effects, usually shepherded by “vocal minorities” has been shown again and again to add up and transform society rapidly, in something like S-shaped curves. If you accept the rapid growth phase of network effects you need to also acknowledging the rapid death phase on the other side of things.
The younger Snapchat generations have normalised having their face plastered on every random "hello" message daily.
This is another advantage for Bluesky. Because as of now, a user of BlueSky would have no clue that it is "decentralized" at all. In comparison, Nostr shoves it in your face that it is totally unlike anything you're used to.
Bluesky just appears as a Twitter alternative. And I think that is very smart of them. Because realistically, only very serious people/companies should consider running alternative relay servers. Relays come and go on Nostr because people underestimate the amount of work / money involved in running them.
In Denmark we're in the process of banning devices like iPads and smartphones from schools and other institutions. We're also likely going to see an age limit on Social Media like TikTok that's around the same age as buying Alcohol (yes, that's a good combination) and a range of other things. In the wider EU, you have privacy and competition stepping in, both banning and taxing these platforms in ways that might make it hard to operate a profitable platform if you're allowed to have one.
It's still a little too uncertain to say anything concrete, but it's certainly not looking like the explosive growth of centralized "free-to-use" platforms will face the same profitable and non-regulated market the coming 20 years that they did the previous.
Someone is going to be well positioned to take advantage of this as people move on from the previous generation of social media platforms.
Another non-activitypub alternative is nostr, where your identity is a public/private key pair: https://github.com/aljazceru/awesome-nostr
Moving data only works in this case if you've thought to attach your DID to a domain you control, and the server you move to connects to the BGS server your data lives on. It's still very unclear how this will work. I suspect it will be like Usenet where most BGS indexers have expiry rules and won't hold on to every post.
This is more complicated than AP and Mastodon where you know exactly where you stand when your server goes down. So many people are going to be burned because they heard it's all portable, but didn't actually understand how it worked, and find they can't migrate their identity or their posts because it all rested under [handle].somehugecentralizedserver.tld.
People who struggle with instances on Mastodon (and eventually, Bluesky) are not going to have an easier time figuring out domains and DNS to make their identity portable. This remains a huge unaddressed issue and should concern people who think Bluesky is easier just because it's unfinished.
With Mastodon you can download your data any time, but you can’t actually upload it anywhere else. There is forwarding, but only for follower subscriptions, with the cooperation of both servers. It’s quite limited. There are brownouts from servers getting overloaded and also due to fairly frequent policy disputes. It does let you do more things without making them public, though, and that’s important to many people.
The blogging model where you have actually independent websites, links, and RSS feeds seems better from a decentralization standpoint, but it’s not popular due to the difficulty of getting people to subscribe to your blog.
That’s why we comment here, right? You could post a comment to your blog, but who would read it? Replies are important.
[1] Technically three - I've got Akkoma, GotoSocial, and a Honk but I only really use the Akkoma one for "real life".
I do think software like gotosocial is the future of ActivityPub, it certainly isn't there yet, indeed.
Mastodon, I'm afraid, has tainted ActivityPub¹. Maybe even beyond fixing. Mastodon is architectured and developed for large servers. It's performance is terrible (It's Rails) for a one-man-show, but optimized and pretty good, for a server (or fleet) for (tens)of thousands of people. There's no incentive to change this. If a choice has to be made between "ease or operation for a single person instance" over a "ease of operation for a thousands-people instance" the latter will always win. Same for performance, security and features.
Gotosocial, OTOH, has the incentives reversed. I'm convinced it will only become easier to host for your personal instance. Only gain more features for such an instance and prioritize fixing issues so self-hosters benefit, rather than community-admins.
¹Edit: AP isn't designed around large federated servers. The protocol, albeit convoluted, is perfectly fine for a situation in which each user is her own server. It's mastodon that has turned AP into a de-facto "one-server-thousands-users" model. Without Mastodon, AP wouldn't exist, I'm not trying to make Mastodon look bad, I like the project.
Not only do you have to keep it running at your expense but you need to invest significant time in moderating the content. Lest you allow illegal content e.g. CP to be hosted for which you will be legally responsible.
That way you don’t need to moderate.