I've read books, like actual paper ones. Spent some time making a simply 2-d space shooter, just for fun. Spent more time engaged with people I care about. Turns out social media is the least social thing ever and basically sucks.
Explain just about all platforms doing revenue adjusting user hostile actions then? Examples include Reddit with the API fees, YT with the Ad Blocking blocking. etc
This is all a reaction to the end of cheap money, aka the cost of capital is going up, so companies need to actually make revenue instead of chasing free capital
>>I don't think this high interest rate environment will last that long
There is no indication this true, most likely the "new normal" is going to be on the order of rates before the 2008 housing crash, not going back to the insanity of 0-1% fed rates...
Bad example. Reddit actions (and Twitter actions) are definitely not due any user hostile actions.
> YT with the Ad Blocking blocking.
This one may be has some merit to it, but we only have Google's word for it, and Google itself doesn't seem to be hurting because of all the bad-no-good ad blocking. Is Youtube hurting? No idea.
The actions are hostile to the users.. Twitter, Reddit, and YT (and others) have changed policies in a way to maximum revenue at the expensive of the users of the platforms.
> There is no indication this true, most likely the "new normal" is going to be on the order of rates before the 2008 housing crash, not going back to the insanity of 0-1% fed rates...
There's no indication that your statement is true either, I think in a 5-10 year span we'll have lower rates simply because virtually every economy is in population decline. In any case, the Twitter and Reddit flubs weren't due to higher interest rates. SVB was, this isn't.
* High returns from interest means the cost of capital is higher. Comparable safe investments return more, so investors demand more of a return from a riskier one.
* As a result, a lot fewer venture investments make sense with the higher discount rate.
* Companies cannot count on going back to the venture till, so high volatility strategies of chase-IPO-now or monetize-now are increasingly employed.
* Similarly, public companies desperately seek better fundamentals now, because future revenues are discounted so much in investors' opinions.
* As a result, a lot of companies enshittify, going after short term wins that risk the entire company's reputation..
As to the interest rate environment: the Fed has suggested a couple more interest rate hikes are likely later this year. It is likely to take quite awhile to walk rates down after inflationary pressures reduce. Current market prices imply rates will stay relatively high for the next few years.
No one really knows what an aging, contracting population will do to the interest rate environment. It's likely governments will have to borrow a bunch more, which can push up rates... And older workers seem to be more productive than models expected, which adds further upward rate pressure.
"When the tide goes out, you see who's been swimming naked."
Really should provide a source when stating things like this, as many will want to check out for themselves exactly what was said.
I went and found the tweet that I assume is being referenced. It's here :
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1675205751902486529
Elon says "He is right". So he is referencing the Imam in the video of the tweet he is replying to (not the tweeter, who appears to be female). The video of the Imam's speech has subtitles, so you can see what Elon is saying 'is right'.
Other random ideas for what you would consider counted? you replied, you liked, you clicked a link through the tweet, you expanded a shortened version of a long tweet. There are so many ways to determine "read" and assuming it's always the naive "it was served" is like building a business based off of page views and not actual engagement.
In this case it doesn't matter though because the aim is to mitigate cost, so equating an impression with engagement is fine.
Normally I'm inclined to think that Musk is a great product person but this one move seems like a jerk reaction to some numbers not meeting expectations and designing a product to improve numbers without thinking about how the product actually works.
Interestingly, we have had (for the first time in years) decent advertising traction on Twitter in the first half of 2023 and I was planning on expanding that.
Advertising a product like ours has been very difficult because the venn diagram of "people who understand rsync.net" and "people who don't use an adblocker* has a very tiny overlap.
So between suspending our reddit promotions due to the dysfunction there and seeing some (very marginal) success with Twitter ads called into question I suspect we're headed back to square one ...
Rendering engine is all Safari on iPhone, so trying another brand of browser won't help with rendering issues.
Odd statement given that Fidelity just cut its valuation of reddit, but increased it valuation of Twitter.
From today, according to https://apnews.com/article/twitter-fidelity-musk-value-08c64.... It doesn't sound like it increased its valuation of twitter in any way tbh.
In reality that was a month ago, and on June 30th they increased the value
https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/30/fidelity-deepens-valuation...
Still significantly down.