Warnings like these quickly hit the Prop 65 problem - the notices are so ubiquitous you go blind to them.
And now, a short conversation between two people to illustrate the rhetoric in play:
Person 1: “Let the market handle that; it will innovate and adapt to customer needs!”
Person 2: “Except the top three players in that industry are quite profitably killing people.”
Person 1: “But how can the industry recover if we act too drastically?”
Person 2: I will quote what you said just above: <<Let the market handle that; it will innovate and adapt to customer needs!>> You were just saying that the market is adaptable! It seems like you are conflating the idea of protecting bad actors with the idea of setting the conditions for a healthy market. A healthy market does not kill its consumers.
When you put the exact same warning on food as lead-containing special solder, cadmium paints, and other very obvious "don't eat this" industrial materials, it loses all efficacy.
Claim: we would benefit by building a culture where basic probability ranges are expected and used.
Idea: Serious publications could:
A. Set basic guidelines for talking about probability estimates; something akin to what you see in government or business intelligence publications. For example, maps terms to ranges:
“highly likely”: > 90%
“likely”: 70% - 90%
“somewhat likely”: 50% - 70%
…
B. Update their editorial standards to not allow pure vagary around probabilities and impacts.
Could authors write more quantitatively? At the levels of the top 100 publications, I’d guess that 80% could, with the help of research and editing staff.
Would some readers be scared off? I’d guess than 80% of a college educated audience could handle it. The rest might complain, but could level up with a little peer pressure.
Would articles become more rigorous? Over time, I’d hope most would. Shift the expectations and make the vocabulary less forgiving to vaguery and fudgery, and I think the incentives point in the right direction.
> You can get cancer from not getting enough sleep. There are plenty of innocuous substances that look fine chemically but disrupt sleep. It doesn't have to be directly mutagenic to cause cancer.
I agree with the comment as written, though it strikes me that virtually no mainstream publications use writing that clarifies or quantifies these kinds of indirect relationships.
I see a lot of intellectual laziness or dumbing down. Two categorical errors happen often:
(A) writing “everything is connected”. This can be true in some sense while also being useless. The more interesting framing is to ask “to what degree” and under what modeling assumptions.
(B) Writing about various linkages without clarifying probability and impact dilution.
The connecting idea in my head was something like this: when most publications talk about cancer they tend to lack even a basic statistical language.
Backstory: Having hundreds of interactions with ChatGPT, which is trained on much mainstream writing, made this interaction pattern obvious and tiresome.
Another way of saying my complaint: It feels like otherwise intelligent people hit a barrier where they start speaking vaguely. They pretend like this is the best we can do. It ideally isn’t; we have extensive scientific and statistical studies. There is no reason why we as a culture have to accept such statistical phobia as quality writing.
With that said, I consider your idea has merit and should be implemented.
But in terms of where we want to go, we can do better. Great writers care about precision, and wisely chosen numbers and ranges are able to provide that. It may be appropriate to situate them in footnotes or endnotes, depending on the context. But the numbers matter.
Very common = greater than 1 in 10
Common = 1 in 100 to 1 in 10
Uncommon [formerly 'less commonly' in BNF publications] = 1 in 1000 to 1 in 100
Rare = 1 in 10 000 to 1 in 1000
Very rare = less than 1 in 10 000
Frequency not known = frequency is not defined by product literature or the side-effect has been reported from post-marketing surveillance data
[0] https://bnf.nice.org.uk/medicines-guidance/adverse-reactions...
Patient has standard American diet and is overweight but not obese -> that leads to sleep apnea -> chronically tired -> they develop a diet Coke habit -> slight increase in cancer risk. What's causing the cancer here, the diet, the adiposity, the sleep apnea, the lack of quality sleep, the soda itself, the effect of soda on teeth leading to gingival inflammation, or the aspartame in the soda?