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Comment by koolba | Hacker News Reader

Short term treasuries are paying more than that. 6 month is at about 5.3% and that’s State tax free.

Bond yields can only be compared apples to apples at similar durations and at similar credit risks (which FDIC insurance normalizes).

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What's interesting is that until very recently, the interest rate on treasury bills were higher for shorter term ones versus longer term. That is, the 4 week ones had a higher interest rate compared to the 26 week ones. In fact, the daily treasury bill interest rate for May 26, 2023 was

    5.78% for 4 weeks
    5.30% for 8 weeks
    5.16% for 13 weeks
    5.28% for 17 weeks
    5.18% for 26 weeks
    4.98% for 52 weeks

[1] https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/...

This is the famous inverted curve. It’s generally been a predictor of recession. But this time it’s been inverted for over a year with no recession (yet).

One of the many baffling parts of the economy currently.

The yield curve inversion to recession lag is typically around 18 months (with big error bars), so it’s not super notable yet.

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