Probably a modest reverse version of that at the lower tier universities.
Love the policy change or hate it, that’s what’s likely to happen.
Given the actual numbers, its more likely that the largest number of applicants negatively affected by this will be white, in absolute terms.
https://stanfordreview.org/stanfords-racial-engineering/
Stanford might be an outlier, but I don't see white applicants being negatively affected by this decision. Quite the opposite.
I will gladly bet the under on double digits for Ivies, MIT, and Stanford.
5% max, possibly as little as 2% — that is, 26% might increase to 31%, but more likely 28%-29%.
Whatever the number is, the increase for whites will probably be greater in both percentage and absolute number.
That said, I agree that the demographics that will lose these spots are non-white, non-Asian groups.
Asians aren’t White.