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Are you really comparing China to the US in terms of military power?

China just finished their first domestic aircraft carrier, and the current military hasn't really been in any major war. In the meantime, the US has continually maintained a state of readiness and nearly constant wars while modernizing its fleet.

But you had to just go 9/11 Truther which means nobody here should really be paying attention to you.

Is it really “9/11 truther” to believe the terrorists flew planes into buildings and the government was too incompetent to stop them? I believe that’s the most anti-truther take possible.

I misread your comment.

A "9/11 Truther" is somebody who disputes the 9/11 Commission's Report. themagician is doing the opposite; men with box cutters crashing planes into buildings is precisely what the 9/11 Commission Report says. Will realizing this change how you feel about the merit of his comment, or will you still feel the same way even though your original reason for feeling this way was completely backwards?

It's likely because I misparsed the meaning of this sentence: "I would not be surprised in the least to find out that the 9/11 conspiracies were funded by the DoD"

thinking that the person I was responding to was suggesting the DoD may have funded the terrorists (a "conspiracy" is a secret plan to do something unlawful).

After re-reading, I see now the claim is that the DoD may have funded the truthers- which I know nothing about.

By the way, you might be interested to know that recent reporting [0] (by Rolling Stone contributing editor Seth Hettena on the Substack SpyTalk, the media project run by veteran former Newsweek national security reporter Jeff Stein), based on legal filings in Guantanamo Bay cases against 9/11 plotters, suggests that the FBI believes the CIA did fund some of the 9/11 terrorists, in the sense that they were cultivating them as intelligence sources. The mundane explanation is not that they sanctioned or even knew about the 9/11 plot, but rather that they failed to share intelligence with the rest of the intelligence community because they didn't want to compromise their source. But there is credible evidence to suggest that the terrorists were not only on the radar of the CIA, but were being actively developed as sources.

[0] https://www.spytalk.co/p/exclusive-fbi-agents-accuse-cia-of

The CIA not sharing information was pretty much the conclusion of the 9/11 report. The CIA cultivating informers (and still not knowing the plans for 9/11) is a long way from what "9/11 Truthers" claim.

People are just stupid on this topic.

The moment the Rubicon is crossed, both the US and China would fall into an all out economic depression and that is exactly why that Rubicon will not be crossed in my lifetime.

This might be an issue at some point if you just graduated high school but for now we have mutually assured economic destruction.

I am far more worried about a debt bomb going off in China than a real bomb.

First domestic aircraft carrier that is a copy of a broken Russian aircraft carrier they bought at a garage sale, right?

>only a supremely powerful government would be able to coverup the existence of extraterrestrial life for 50+ years.

The allegations by David Grusch that set all this off included that there's been a decades long competition between various nations to collect these craft.

From The Debrief Article

>“His assertion concerning the existence of a terrestrial arms race occurring sub-rosa over the past eighty years focused on reverse engineering technologies of unknown origin is fundamentally correct, as is the indisputable realization that at least some of these technologies of unknown origin derive from non-human intelligence,” said Karl Nell, the retired Army Colonel who worked with Grusch on the UAP Task Force.

My take away had been that most of the allegations are effectively some level all the stuff we've always heard about UFOs has been true this whole time (e.g. Roswell). Essentially one of the worst kept secrets, ignored largely because of the implausibility rather than secrecy.

It’s largely ignored because it’s not true. It’s shocking how many people believe in “Rosewell”. I mean… really? Really?! Only in America.

Perhaps, but that isn't the point you or I were making.

You're saying this is surfacing to fabricate American excellence and relied on the assumption that these claims are being made because 1) Only a superior nation could hide this and 2) only a superior nation could find them. What has been claimed was that it's barely hidden and a bunch of nations have been finding them. Your argument is against a straw man.

Largely ignored due to the effectiveness of a decades long campaign to ridicule anything/one who questioned.

This does not track for me at all. I'm sorry but why would anybody in the DOD have an incentive to "make Americans believe in US military and intelligence superiority"?

To keep Americans happy about the over 3/4 Trillion dollars we spend on defense every year?

“You spend a lot, but you get the best!” sounds a lot better than “You spend a lot, but we still suck!”

> “You spend a lot, but you get the best!” sounds a lot better than “You spend a lot, but we still suck!”

This argument doesn't make any sense. The US military is better than the next top three militaries combined. The Ukraine war is showing the superiority of decades old Western tech.

That doesn’t stop the DoD from wanting Americans to know that fact, because that’s how they’re funded.

It can show that the best still isn't good enough for some scenarios, including this scenario where unmanned aircraft are entering US airspace unimpeded.

The US military might be better than the rest, but they were still defeated by poor people in the desert with some Casio watches and decades' old AKs.

Similarly, it seems that small drones are another potential avenue of exploitation in asymmetric warfare.

> The US military is better than the next top three militaries combined.

Partially due to institutional experience and economies of scale (for certain capabilities). We probably still exceed what the next top 3 powers (China, Russia, India, BTW) are spending in PPP terms, so it shouldn't be that surprising.

> The Ukraine war is showing the superiority of decades old Western tech.

For every video of HIMARS blowing up a Russian ammo depot, there's a video of Ka-52 helicopters popping M2 Bradleys from 5+ km away.[1] M777s were lauded for their accuracy....until they broke. [2] Ukrainian brigades have been lavishly equipped with Western armored vehicles and they've bounced off a brick wall of positively-ancient minefields and artillery, very similar to the defense-in-depth that the Soviets used to defeat the Germans at Kursk ...in 1943.[3]

This conflict is so complex in terms of difficult-to-measure soft factors that are influencing the battlefield (training, maintenance, corruption, NATO ISR support, information operations/propaganda, etc.), that drawing conclusions about the merits of individual technical systems or especially the overall tech base of the two main powers (Russia vs "the West") as a whole is....unwise.

[1]https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-armor-appears...

[2]https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us/ukraine-artillery-brea...

[3]https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/26/world/europe/ukraine-coun...

The war in Ukraine is showing that the "superpowers" aren't so super. It's showing just how much of the military superiority is propaganda and nothing more. But we already knew that, because the US just went through what Russia is now going through.

The US just lost a 20 year war in Afghanistan against cave dwellers with Soviet-era rifles, homemade explosives and random bits from the bottom of a toolbox. You'd think maybe they'd have busted out the ray guns or spaceships instead of taking the L.

> The US just lost a 20 year war in Afghanistan against cave dwellers with Soviet-era rifles, homemade explosives and random bits from the bottom of a toolbox.

To be fair the US left Afghanistan and the remaining Afghani army crumbled to the taliban pretty quickly.

I’d say the two situations are very different, the US successfully occupied a country that was ~7000km from them.

The Russians have so far failed to take a city that’s ~200km from their own border in about 1 and a half years.

To be even more fair, the US lost the War in Afghanistan. It's an unambiguous Taliban victory. That's how it will read in every history book that doesn't have an American flag and a bald eagle on it. 20 years there and all the US did was create a whole new generation of terrorists who will spend the rest of their lives seeking revenge.

We lost, but it wasn't a military loss, it was a catastrophic failure of diplomacy.

We had control for a long time.

It was a military loss. When one military quits and runs away really fast that’s a loss. And it’s not the first time. When the US loses they hold a parade and say, “We left.” Such a joke. And American citizens never hold their government accountable. Instead they just believe the BS and do it all over again. Kind of amazing, really. No shame.

Vietnam was a military loss.

If you have control of an area and mismanage it for years, that's not a military loss. Failure at that point is something different.

Sure if you want to frame it that way.

But it’s still not comparable to Ukraine.

The sheer scale involved is completely different and really shows the ability of the US to project force.

Whereas Russia is currently struggling to get 200km from their own border.

The causalities scales are also hugely different. The Russians have taken likely close to 5x the causalities in about 1/4 the time.

Russia is clearly not a super power but that doesn’t mean other countries like America aren’t.

Tbf, it's hard to fight back when a portion of the Taliban was explicitly sheltered by a faction of a nuclear armed state's intelligence service.

The war is showing that Western superpower tech is far in advance of Soviet and post-Soviet tech (in most areas), but that tech can't win all wars. Russia buys drones from Iran which contain parts from many western companies (most of which were manufactured in China), which I think tells you a lot about the relative levels of technology. I doubt the Ukranians would have made it so far with so much relative success without US intelligence and materiel. if we gave them lots more air assets and they used them well, it would give them a huge advantage over Russia, which seems to have somehow lost its air force.

As for Afghanistan, well, of course never get involved in a land war in Asia. But that wasn't a conventional war, and our military is intended to fight conventional wars. Our forces really are not set up to respond to the Taliban.

Because one of the purposes of flying surveillance aircraft in US airspace is psychological warfare. It sends the message that China/Russia/whoever can send whatever they want into US airspace and there's nothing that anyone, including the military, can do about it. It sows fear, uncertainty and doubt in both the public and even members of the military who can recognize the advanced capabilities of the armies they might have to fight. It sends the message that you are not safe at home, and those who are supposed to protect you can't.

However, if people think they're aliens, that instead turns psychological warfare on its head and into something that inspires awe, wonder and possibility. No one is scared in the ways adversaries want them to be scared, and no one doubts the government is actually capable of handling threats from adversaries.

"Aliens" as an explanation quells the potential for panic, versus adversaries successfully inducing the panic responses they desire. It also gives the opportunity for those who care too much about this to be painted as quacks.

I don't understand your comment. Russia has no real capability to fly surveillance aircraft over US territory. They can barely manage to fly to Syria without breaking down.

I said:

> China/Russia/whoever

As a placeholder for potential US adversaries who might have the motivation do something like this. If you don't like that I said Russia, ignore it and fill it in with China.

Come on, be serious. China can't even get the metallurgy right on turbine engines. Never mind flying saucers. If they are doing any airborne surveillance over the US homeland then it's either with spy balloons, or cheap little short-range drones launched by agents on the ground.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/china-air-force-may-take-a...

I don't think they're doing anything special other than sending incredibly cheap drones and balloons. Nobody is bending the laws of physics or doing anything advanced here.

If you think people are seeing real flying saucers that are defying the laws of physics, I don't know what to tell you.

Yet you said:

>China/Russia/whoever can send whatever they want into US airspace and there's nothing that anyone, including the military, can do about it.

So it's not "whatever they want", it's cheap drones and balloons. You make China out to be some scary powerful Boogeyman (which requires the USG to invent alien stories as a cover) and then admit they don't have such capability.

I personally am not scared one iota about Chinese aircraft threatening US airspace. And I am very confident that if such a scenario did arise, the US military would address it in the most appropriate and effective way. Which could range anywhere from ignoring it, to neutralizing with extreme prejudice.

So many reasons. If you want unlimited funding, if you want people to join, if you want citizens to feel safe… you really want them to feel like the government is powerful. If people think their government is a joke they will treat it as a joke. You don't want people thinking that a dozen people with box cutters can fly planes into buildings. You don't want people thinking that "the greatest superpower in the world" can't defeat literal cave dwellers with ancient soviet era weaponry. You don't want people to know that China's military is much more advanced than the public is aware and they are routinely flying over US airspace undetected.

You want people to feel safe and pay their taxes. You want your citizens to believe that the $2 trillion spend on defense every year goes to good use, creating the kind of military and intelligence apparatus that Hollywood portrays.

We fund these types of propaganda campaigns for the same reasons we have military parades and air shows. We saw how well these kinds of "overwhelmingly powerful" government myths worked for both the Soviets and Axis powers in WW2 and we copied it. Every government chasing power and status wants its citizens to feel like they are the most powerful. China and Russia have similar kinds of myths.

But you don't have to take my word for it. Please, continue to believe that spaceships from other planets have crashed and some elite division within the US government managed to retrieve them and keep it secret for 50+ years. Look past the failing state of our infrastructure and continue to believe that an alien species capable of interstellar travel is interested specifically in Americans, but "they" are keeping you from knowing the truth!

There's a vast gulf between "believing that spaceships from other planets have crashed and some elite division..." and subscribing to your theory which is so far only supported by you insisting to us what "you want" as a theoretical deep state government apparatus. From my perspective, it would seem like the widespread belief that terrorists could crash planes into buildings resulted in a lot of public money, enlistment, and support flowing into the US Military over the early 2000s.

You're presenting a false choice between two conspiracy theories as the only ways to view this situation, which certainly doesn't make your particular conspiracy theory look any more credible.

Not really. I will admit that it's totally possible that there is no conspiracy. It's entirely possible that people are so naturally brainwashed that they conspire against themselves without the help of the government. Pride is a hell of a drug, so that is totally possible. I mean, people do it with religion so why not this.

China said they were going to shoot down the US balloon. They lost their lock and never got it back. Meanwhile the US is literally able to shoot down kites.

> But you don't have to take my word for it. Please, continue to believe that spaceships from other planets have crashed and some elite division within the US government managed to retrieve them and keep it secret for 50+ years. Look past the failing state of our infrastructure and continue to believe that an alien species capable of interstellar travel is interested specifically in Americans, but "they" are keeping you from knowing the truth!

I don't believe any such thing.

> This does not track for me at all. I'm sorry but why would anybody in the DOD have an incentive to "make Americans believe in US military and intelligence superiority"?

Especially when NATO hasn't fired a shot in Ukraine, but is supplying real-time intelligence to the AFU.

US cold war era surplus + EW helped break an entire Russian army, and may yet break a second.

> This is a push by the DoD to make American's believe in US military and intelligence superiority

Do you have any evidence of this?