True but also misleading. In the end everything is really math but that is unhelpful. What matters is the model you apply to your numbers. And state monitoring as thought by Nagios is that you have 4 states: ok, warning, critical, unknown. And you have hard and soft states. This can be replicated with prometheus queries but it's incredibly complex and error prone, not to mention you will destroy your metrics storage IO.
Theory crafting aside I've created in a few months a monitoring system using Icinga that had virtually no false positives or negatives. That you could trust to phone you straight though without fear it will miss something important for business or wake you up for nothing. I never saw anything like this done with metrics or logs done by anybody.