Regarding "Fooled by Randomness". I haven't read the book, but assume it's brought up in the inherent randomness of the markets, and people's ability to try to rationalize said randomness.

Trying to understand the market is surely a shortcut to crazy town, and certainly trying to rationalize it is a poor mechanism to profit. But it's clearly evident that the market isn't uniformly random, and that there exists exploitable patterns in the market that are reliably (to a degree) profitable over certain time periods.

I think the thesis of "Fooled by Randomness" is best taken advantage of by understanding that you need to recognize the pattern, and exploit it directly, rather than trying to extrapolate meaning and use that directly.

The market is clearly a truly chaotic system, but you just need to take advantage of patterns that are statistically relevant and profitable.

Edit: After additional contemplation, I'm not sure I actually agree with what I just said.