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Comment by TheOtherHobbes | Hacker News Reader

I've been following this on Twitter, and so far as I can tell it's a bar fight between a couple of crazy old guys who both happen to have an army.

Prigozhin's rationale for this episode seems to be intense annoyance that he wasn't getting respect.

And now - as he believes - he's got that after a show of strength, everyone can go home and pretend it never happened.

It's insanity. Just bonkers. All of it.

Some Ukrainians I know tell me there's local suspicion that was a feint or a ruse to see where Ukraine would attack. It's an interesting idea, but that seems a lot of effort and drama for a very small reward.

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We like to think that international politics is a group of intelligent and suave individuals working things out, but it is much more predictive and instructive to consider it as toddlers brawling in a preschool whilst their parents are brawling at the local tavern.

We like to think that ‘the government’ is in any way any combination of sane, shrewd, or smart. As if it’s this entity that has its own mind.

I’ve worked with various Australian federal government agencies for ten years now. Three years ago we moved to the capital, Canberra.

It turns out ‘the government’ is just a bunch of people who happen to live in this one city. They’re as average as the rest of us. They were born here because their parents live here and these are the jobs here so that’s what they do.

In fact few outsiders come here because the city is famously boring. [0]

The mystery is why we would think that this group of people were any different from the rest of us.

[0]: Actually it’s a charming little town. Don’t tell anybody.

pretty much with most groups, from the cdc to ftc to fifa :)

And most big companies too ... Faang / banks / whatever

Can confirm all of the above, I’ve worked at two federal government agencies in Canberra.

The agencies were like daycare for adults. No secret cabals of 5D chess planning. Those people couldn’t plan their way out of a wet paper bag.

Also, Canberra itself is rather lovely! It’s quiet, clean, and the food is good.

All those politicians have to eat their “it’s totally not bribery” $500 lunches somewhere.

"Do you not know, my son, with how very little wisdom the world is governed?" (in a letter to his son Johan written in 1648; in the original Latin it reads: An nescis, mi fili, quantilla prudentia mundus regatur?).

Axel Oxenstierna (1583–1654) Swedish statesman.

The most shocking lesson of history is the utter banality incompetence at the highest levels.

>Prigozhin's rationale for this episode seems to be intense annoyance that he wasn't getting respect.

i think his intense annoyance might be result of some assassination attempt. he claimed yesterday that wagner bases were bombed. on one of the yesterdays videos he has rather deep and long fresh looking cut on his face

>Some Ukrainians I know tell me there's local suspicion that was a feint or a ruse to see where Ukraine would attack.

I'm credulous of this. It's a lot of effort and drama but the stakes are extremely high too. If it lured Ukraine into a death trap it would pay for itself.

The fact that very little fighting occurred and nobody even went to prison is suspicious.

The fact that Prigozhin demonstrated extreme personal loyalty to Putin in the past and vice versa on a level few others have matched is also suggestive. Who else would you ask to run a fake coup?

Also haven't something like 20 pilots been killed when their planes/helicopters were shot down? If something is for show you probably don't want to kill some of your more highly trained people for no reason while also damaging their surviving peer's moral.

No, I think if the coup was fake they probably faked those deaths.

I'm not even sure if the MOD confirmed them. The details might have just "appeared" on telegram.

I saw a photo of the dead pilots. Their faces were blurred. Weird huh?

Of course Wagner going to belaruse isn't any better, that is still next door and presents the ability for them to attack from the north in the future.

It's only Prigozhin going to Belaruse, not Wagner. He's effectively lost his army and is now in exile. Though I'm guessing he'd only agree to the deal if he was able to bring along an escort of some amount of Wagner troops loyal to him and/or some other reliable guarantee of his safety.

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