>> basic recommendations can be pretty certain to have a pretty nice quality of life.
> This is both delusional and horrible in the sense of being victim blaming.
> when bad luck gets hold of you.
Bad luck can take you out when you're 5, as you mentioned, so I'm not sure what the point is in this conversation about statistically beneficial behavior.
Eating healthy, drinking in low amounts (including none) will put you in a bell curve of longevity leaning into the 70s and 80s, not give you a 100% certainty (this is the obvious interpretation of "pretty certain"). "bad luck", as you put it, takes you out of the normal distribution into a tail. What you mean by "delusional" or "victim blaming" isn't clear, as it does not apply, in context.