Russia accuses mercenary boss of mutiny, he says Moscow killed 2k of his men
reuters.com
reuters.com
Is this an exit option being prepared, where if things really go south, Prigozhin and Putin frame Shoigu, saying "we were lied to, it's all his fault"? Maybe kill two birds with one stone if Shoigu is a threat for other reasons.
Or, is Prigozhin telling the truth?
Or, is this really the beginning of a coup?
Or none of the above?
Prigozhin has his own private army. Shoigu is the minister of defense, so he is in charge of the regular Russian army, which is much bigger. Shoigu does not like Prigozhin and his people. No love lost there, Prigozhin despises Shoigu, whom he believes is a cretin.
Lately, members of the regular army have started attacking Wagnerites. When they actually dropped a missile on them, Prigozhin considered his options. 1. Say nothing, fall in line, 2. Denounce Shoigu, 3. Go for Putin.
He did not choose the last option, Putin is still popular, or simply too strong. Attacking him directly was too risky.
The first option was not really an option: Prigozhin is himself a bully, he knows how bullies act. If you don't fight back, you only embolden them. Not saying anything when Shoigu drops a missile on you is equivalent to inviting him to drop 10 tomorrow. Not an option.
He chose to denounce Shoigu. To claim that he betrayed not him personally, but the whole Russian country, and Putin too (faint hope here that he will not alienate Putin; yeah, fat chance). But he needed to do something more than just mouth off. Words are cheap, and he tried words many times before. A straight coup is too risky. He is not going for Moscow, that's for sure. At least not for now.
But he knows that lots of the regular military are tied up with the Ukrainian counteroffensive. He has a few tens of thousands of fairly competent mercs who can go and set camp in Rostov. He can start an information campaign. He can even send some tips to the Ukrainian army. Shoigu can't dispatch a few tens of thousands of soldiers to take care of him. He can try to drop a few more missiles on the Wagnerites, but those are veterans, they have been exposed to artillery strikes for longer than Shoigu would like to admit. They know how to deal with that.
If Prigozhin's information campaign starts getting some success, then he'll force Putin's hand.
It's a stupendously risky gamble. But doing nothing was also risky. He chose the lesser of the two risks.