Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”
twitter.com
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In this case, the CEO risking his life on this third(!) voyage means 1 of 2 possibilities: 1) The CEO has done the due diligence and has a thorough understanding of the risks and the safety protocols involved to minimize those risks. 2) The CEO is naive.
Or they are just adrenaline junkies with far smaller risk threshold than typical human.
In general there was a ton of red flags but as probably nobody gets to that level of money without ability to sell the stuff they are pedding, he probably sold the fact the submarine has successfully dived so it is "tested".
The Titanic is one of the most notorious icons of human hubris. And these tourists died to the same.
Or are you referring to the insufficient number of lifeboats? I haven’t seen any evidence that other ships carried a larger number of lifeboats relative to their size.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20120402-the-myth-of-the-... (Titanic anniversary: The myth of the unsinkable ship)
"There is no danger that Titanic will sink. The boat is unsinkable and nothing but inconvenience will be suffered by the passengers." Phillip Franklin, White Star Line vice-president, 1912
This submarine likely decompressed, killing the CEO and I believe 3 rich tourists because they didn't believe they needed to check the health of their submersible, firing the people that raised security concerns.
I think it's safe to say that both captains were full of hubris
It's considered to be true that the prioritization of on-time arrival and the belief that the ships of the day were too well designed to founder contributed to the disaster, but rather than representing unique hubris on the part of Titanic's builders and captain, these are understood to have been common throughout the passenger shipping industry of the day.
"The OceanGate CEO who is trapped on a 22-foot submersible on an ill-fated voyage to see the Titanic wreck once explained how he didn’t hire “50-year-old white guys” with military experience to captain his vessels because they weren’t “inspirational.”
The CEO, Stockton Rush, added that “expertise was unnecessary” because “anybody can drive the sub” with a $30 video game controller." [0]
[0] https://www.outkick.com/trapped-oceangate-ceo-refused-to-hir...
The lack of contact would be because nobody was alive to contact, which is honestly better, at least they had a quick death instead of slow suffocation.
And the banging noises are probably either the sub imploding or from debris falling to the ocean floor.
[Edit] Link to video with a description of the major debris found: https://youtu.be/A0xJ220Fod4?t=263
"the front end-bell of the pressure hull - that was the first indication that there was a catastrophic event"
"the aft end-bell which basically...comprised the totality of that pressure vessel"
If the window failed, I would expect to have none or one bell separated from the tube, but not both. I imagine the glass being shot inside the tube and the water jet would vaporize the people inside and maybe blow one bell off.
If the tube failed, would expect both bells to be sitting on the ocean floor.
I’m not a professional mechanical engineer, just a guess.
Report I saw was de-lam or otherwise failed tube.
I wonder if it made a noise first? Like I assume that depth you get all sorts of noises anyhow but a 5” carbon tube, I wonder if it crackled first?
It's going to be interesting to see to what level (if any), this gets root-caused. It's not trivial to do when stuff is miles down on the ocean floor.
I assume there isn't a regulatory requirement (like a plane crash). I wonder if it's even needed from an ensuing lawsuit situation; it seems like there's plenty of evidence to support a negligence argument, without getting into the specifics of whether it's the hull that failed or the diving bell, etc.
If it was the Plexiglas that failed (or other part of the end bell assembly), I'd expect the pressure to quickly equalise though the failure point and the carbon fibre shell to remain relatively intact and hold those end bells together.
Though, I'm not an engineer. Maybe the rapid change in loading could result in the carbon fibre shattering.
This was brutal beyond imagination.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OceanGate#Design_and_construct...
Otherwise it would need expensive pressure-resistant floatation devices.
I see a number of potential flaws with that plan. You are assuming it will fail in a way that produces a warning and then stays intact enough to resurface. You are also relying on an electronic device to not fail. And audio processing algorithms... how many of these carbon fibre pressure vessels did they test to destruction to get test data? Zero?
"Rush holds a patent on the system."
Ok.... I guess that explains it. I'm getting an impression of real "I'll just invent a magic device that makes it safe" energy here.
Besides which, it's entirely possible as well that adhesive was progressively chemically compromised, with no attempts to measure it... I can think of myriad directions to investigate
Then again, I don't have access to schemata either.... So I should really just stop. It just kills me though, because this entire event has 'preventable but I didn't want to bother' written all over it.
Yes, this is precisely it. None of this had to happen, it's a combination of greed and hubris.
Time will tell. But plexiglass has better cycling properties than carbon fiber so my guess is that hull went first.
Ironically.
Or something else entirely. There's a surprising amount of unexplained noise picked up from the ocean.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65994405
However there may have been multiple noise events.
As I understood it, this was for the 1/3 scale model.
I still haven't seen a comprehensive write-up that assigns facts to the model vs. the final article or compares them.
also no radio left to contact somebody with
The post basically says, (1) the "vast majority of marine (and aviation) accidents are the result of operator error, not mechanical failure", and (2) the vehicle classification guidelines are too stringent and stymie innovation.
A rationale person might interpret that as: (1) mechanical-related incidents are very infrequent as a percentage of total incidents, because (2) vehicle guidelines successfully minimize rates of mechanical failure, such that remaining incidents are generally operational in nature.
Oceangate ignores this implication and bluffs its way from pointing out that most incidents are operational in nature (for a sample set of largely mechanically certified crafts) to implying that a focus on operational safety is a reasonable way to minimize total risk (for an uncertified craft).
ref: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Y_6Rrx...
https://jalopnik.com/oceangate-ceo-called-safety-a-waste-sui...
Err..
risk: die
reward: cool pic on instagram
> Rush's experience and research led him to two basic conclusions: one, that submersibles had an unwarranted reputation as dangerous vehicles due to their use in ferrying commercial divers, and two, the Passenger Vessel Safety Act of 1993 "needlessly prioritized passenger safety over commercial innovation".
Pretty much says it there along with a rationalization about why the company should ignore any outside experts due to "innovation".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz95_VvTxZM
Video contents: An experiment where the vacuum safety valves were removed from an oil tanker railroad car, and a vacuum was placed inside the car, resulting in it crumpling in an implosion. There is no gore or other specific disturbing content
"almost 4000 meters of water" is "almost 400 atmospheres". About 2.7 tons per square inch. I find that that absolutely unimaginable. - I can't find any equivalence that my brain can make sense of.
For every ten meters of descent, pressure increases by 1 atmosphere. At 4000 meters, that's 400 atm, or ~40 Mega Pascals, which is significantly higher than the pressure caused by the bomb that leveled a building in Oklahoma.
The hull shattered catastrophically, and the pressure wave liquified the occupants instantly. It's horrifying, but at least it was painless.
Probably the fastest and least painful way to die, short of sitting on a 2000 lb bomb or the like when it goes off.
Milliseconds, at most.
Not that anyone had to die.
I'll watch the drone footage of the deep ocean, thanks.
If it was structurally compromised, the implosion would be so fast, a combustion event a la what happens in diesel engines would have occurred.
There would be no bodies. There would only be shreds of pressure hull.
The titanium hemispheres may have maintained their shape. There is a slight chance it may have been a pinhole leak, and someone had a second to go "Uh..." before the rest of the structure started giving way.
It is clear that even these "strain gauges and microphones" to detect compromise of the structure were useless, or that the issure ultimately rested on the window in the front.
The main point to keep in mind is that short of finding the two hemispheres in the next day or so, we'll likely not know the full details with regard to the course of events of the unmaking of the vehicle.
The Sea has claimed them, and she is wont to give up her dead. Hubris, met by the cold hard edge of reality, has proven to be an insufficient aegis once again.
May they rest in peace.
Implying the middle carbon fiber imploded.
Bodies are mostly water, which is not compressible. So not really. But all the voids would have filled very quickly: the sinuses, ears, trachea, and lungs would have collapsed instantly. The bodies would also have been "pasted" against the opposite bulkhead to the failure, as unlike water the air around them would have been very compressible indeed.
Much better way to go then suffocate in darkness.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byford_Dolphin
> Investigation by forensic pathologists determined that Hellevik, being exposed to the highest pressure gradient and in the process of moving to secure the inner door, was forced through the crescent-shaped opening measuring 60 centimetres (24 in) long created by the jammed interior trunk door. With the escaping air and pressure, it included bisection of his thoracoabdominal cavity, which resulted in fragmentation of his body, followed by expulsion of all of the internal organs of his chest and abdomen, except the trachea and a section of small intestine, and of the thoracic spine. These were projected some distance, one section being found 10 metres (30 ft) vertically above the exterior pressure door.
That's with a nine atmosphere pressure differential. The Titanic is at about 400 atmospheres.
- [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5514183/#:~:tex...
> This resulted in the chamber being explosively decompressed from a pressure of nine atmospheres to the one atmosphere of the unsealed chamber system.
Whereas an analogous description of the submarine implosion would describe the opposite, i.e. "explosively compressed from a pressure of one atmosphere to 400 atmospheres."
Imploding or exploding, nine atmospheres is gonna suck. 400 atmospheres is... like standing under a nuclear bomb. The good news is it doesn't hurt, at all.
Someone else on the thread posted a video of a one atmosphere implosion (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz95_VvTxZM). 400x the pressure here.
That said, you can get leaks. I participated on a research cruise with a French submersible, and there was talk of small leaks with the main hatch seal occurring during descent. The "fix" was to go deeper so the pressure would essentially seal the hatch shut.
Part of this is the use of carbon fibre, which is a very brittle material. In bike frame failures, for example, carbon fibre doesn't tend to rip a little or bend, it often fractures greatly or even shatters.
Add the enormous pressure difference, and this is why most people assume instant catastrophic failure.
But if the leak is noticed at say 20m they would have surfaced.
A leak with the amount of pressure at 1000m would cause a high speed jet like from a water cutter. That in turn would cause the material around the leak to be ground away.
This is really bad for the structural integrity and boom the whole thing implodes in a fraction of a second.
I was thinking more like a screw with resistance along the threads such that the pressure goes from 5800 psi to say 20 psi at the last thread or whatever. Then you might get a stable leak.
A screw is there to resist being pulled out. If water got to those screw threads as you posit, that'd basically be like reversing the forces to which that fastener was meant to resist. You go from "big chunk of material to hold in screw" to "little triangular threadforms trying to stay joined to the material around them in spite of 5800 psi trying to transit a pressure gradient insisting otherwise."
I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just saying if I remotely thought it was possible to end up in that situation, I'd be going back to the drawing board to try to rule out that possibility. My brain just shows me visions of a screw turned into a bullet that barely gets slowed down going through a human body after threadforms crush like tortilla chips, a water cutter blasting through somebody into the opposite ablating a hole and causing a cascaded failure that then shortly thereafter becomes diesel thoomp.
If you'll excuse me, I'm abandoning this train of thought.
This would happen on the order of milliseconds.
Their blood would combust instantly.
They found cooked blood after that accident too.
This: https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/divers-bloo...
was 'only' at nine atmospheres the titanic is at four hundred!
400 bar is (from some quick searching) fairly mild for industrial hydraulic systems, and hydraulic fluid doesn’t get especially hot while in use.
On the other hand, a leak in a pressurized hydraulic system is extremely dangerous if you’re around it due to the extreme velocity of ejected fluid.
Eg I'd imagine the poor souls on the Titanic next door are not crushed by the pressure, for the same reason.
Or with scuba diving, deep scuba is complicated and dangerous for many reasons, but the pressure compressing the body is not one of them.
Instantly too, as carbon fibre is brittle, this would not have been a progressive process.
Everyone, everywhere just parroting and re-parroting the same comments, attitude, pretending to understand the engineering with snippets from comments they’ve read, reactive talking points, etc…
Very strange.
Did anyone else feel like an alien following this story online?
It was a cheap third party Xbox controller. i.e. it's the spare controller you made your friend use when he came over to play Halo 2 that one time.
Nobody thought the gamepad was the actual cause of failure. They thought the gamepad was funny in the context of Stockton Rush cutting corners.
it’s strange on its face to use a game controller when we’ve all spilled soda or water on one and watched it become useless and they’re taking this into… the ocean… and just to add insult to injury, playing on offbrand controllers always irritated me so to see them cut even further was super strange.
more than anything it is that combined with the stuff he bragged about buying from camper world—just a sign of strange corner cutting indicating their was likely more that we weren’t seeing.
I mean the buttons got sticky but that's the worst I saw, nothing a bit of IPA wouldn't fix.
But yeah, definitely red flag, especially that they used wireless one. Industrial (and so protected from dust and at least humidity) ones are not that expensive compared to the price of massive carbon tube at least
> playing on offbrand controllers always irritated me so to see them cut even further was super strange.
Lmao "offbrand" Logitech is one of biggest makes of accessories. They have both good and cheap stuff, this one is some midrange one so I doubt quality is a problem.
Also it's a PC controller, what "brand" would they be offing ?
Carbon fiber is a great material, if used where it shines. For this application I don't think it is a good choice, even if it worked a few times. What I didn't understand is the focus on the electronics and the control system, those are irrelevant if the hull isn't going to work out.
Two reasons, I think. First, the (apparent) shoddiness of a control mechanism is easily understood, whereas the reasons why carbon fiber makes a poor choice for a pressure hull are more difficult to understand. Consequently, the use of a game controller is a more salient example of a company cutting corners than their choice of material in the pressure hull. (This is somewhat undermined by the fact that a game controller actually isn't necessarily a problem--Ars Technica ended up running articles on consecutive days with the first one being a tee-hee-they're-using-a-game-controller article and the second one being a why-the-military-uses-game-controllers article.)
The second reason may be that some people would rather focus on the potential failure that admits a possibility that the inhabitants are alive instead of potential the failure that guaranteed their death before the search started.
That's all true, but the use of the Logitech game controller and and other consumer-grade electronics rightfully drew scorn of its own.
I deal with automotive electronics, which is less rigorous than aerospace and/or military applications, never mind deep sea operation. Even so, in the automotive space, there is considerable attention paid to making the housings, cables and the electronics themselves robust with regards to the environmental conditions. Heat, cold, moisture, dirt, vibration, salt, etc. The idea of using non-redundant, consumer grade electronics to control a deep sea vessel is ridiculous. Just being regularly exposed to salty air could induce corrosion in critical components.
So you are saying they were carrying around a spare controller, and a spare everything else inside the sub? At all times?
A car is of course much different, most components have to operate for years without maintenance in a very uncontrolled, varied set of environments.
https://pomametals.com/salt-air-inland-distance-for-metal/
The Logitech controller isn't sealed for moisture. A single drop of sea water on it can slide inside and start the corrosion process. It looks fine on the outside, because the plastic isn't as affected.
Most of the buttons on a commercial grade PC input device use conductive carbon pads pressing against bare metal contacts on a PCB. Yes, the contacts may be gold plated, but there is still exposed copper on the sides.
Heck, even ordinary contamination from skin oil has caused one my keyboard's keys to stop working. I was able to take the keyboard apart and clean it, fixing the problem. The keyboard was never exposed to anything beyond a normal office environment, and never had liquid spilled on it.
Marine grade switches are waterproof and dustproof:
https://newwiremarine.com/marine-grade-switches/
If you take care and seal the soldered wires to the switch electrical contacts, it should be good for years and years of use, even at sea.
"However, the cramped vessel lost contact with its mother ship about 1 hour and 45 minutes into its dive, did not surface as expected and has not been heard from since.
"Aboard the Titan were Rush, the OceanGate CEO and founder, along with Harding, a British businessman; Pakistani billionaire Shahzada Dawood and his son Suleman Dawood; and Nargeolet, a French diver, according to relatives and social media posts.
"Earlier Thursday, the US Coast Guard said it found a “debris field” in the search area near the Titanic that, according to a memo obtained by CNN, has been assessed to be from the external body of the submersible." [1]
The ocean is very, very deep. The Titanic is 13,000 feet below sea level, and the submersible was scheduled to take 2.5 hours just for the descent.
EDIT: corrected feet/meters
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/22/us/submersible-titanic-oceang...
Rush, the CEO of OceanGate Expeditions, told a Mexican travel blogger in 2021 he wanted to be known as an innovator who broke the rules.
“I think it was (US Army) Gen. (Douglas) MacArthur who said, ‘You’re remembered for the rules you break,’” Rush told Alan Estrada, who documented his trip to the Titanic, including an aborted attempt in July 2021 before a successful visit in 2022.
“And you know,” Rush added, “I’ve broken some rules to make this.”
if they lost contact at around 1h45m in a 2hr descent, maybe they were at 3000m depth (approx)? Therefore:
29341710 Pa = 997 x 3000 x 9.81 = 4255.6 lbs per square inch
> On 24 December 1950, while responding to a formal request from the Pentagon, specifically Major General Charles L. Bolte, about a hypothetical question regarding which targets should be bombed with atomic weapons if the Soviets got directly involved in the Korean War or if the Chinese military sent bombers to bomb UN forces in Korea and Japan from mainland China, MacArthur submitted a list of "retardation targets" in Korea, Manchuria and other parts of China, for which 34 atomic bombs would be required.
And from that same link, here's a direct quote from an interview with MacArthur which was published posthumously:
> Of all the campaigns of my life, 20 major ones to be exact, [Korea was] the one I felt most sure of was the one I was deprived of waging. I could have won the war in Korea in a maximum of 10 days.... I would have dropped between 30 and 50 atomic bombs on his air bases and other depots strung across the neck of Manchuria
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relief_of_Douglas_MacArthur#Nu...
> In January 1951, MacArthur refused to entertain proposals for the forward deployment of nuclear weapons. On a similar note, showing MacArthur directly rejecting the use of weapons of mass destruction when he had the power to answer a subordinate, in January 1951 he immediately rejected Lieutenant General Matthew Ridgway's urgent request to use chemical weapons on Chinese and North Korean soldiers. Though MacArthur made many statements regarding nuclear weapons after 1951, there has never been evidence, like memos or transcriptions of meetings, provided by anyone that MacArthur ever requested to use nuclear weapons or tried to push Truman or other Pentagon officials to use them during the Korean War while he was the UN Commander.
MacArthur may have been pro-nuke in public statements, but I think it's telling that, when the actual, real-world opportunities presented themselves, he actively refused to entertain the idea of nuking anything. He wouldn't even authorize the use of chemical weapons.
I don't know a lot about MacArthur, and have no dog in this race; I'm just reading more at the link you provided.
It's 3800 meters, 13000 feet as you wrote in the first paragraph.
Nothing shallow about 3800m deep, that's abyssal plains level, it's basically the bottom of the "normal" ocean (the abnormal ocean being the hadal zone of the trenches). It's a land of no light, little to no oxygen, and literally freezing cold.
"Mechanic on ‘record-setting’ Titan dive dismisses criticism from ‘armchair experts’"
https://news.yahoo.com/mechanic-record-setting-titan-dive-19...
Though insinuating all critics were "armchair experts" is pretty disingenuous. There were plenty of real experts raising serious safety concerns, including the guy who got fired for not approving manned test dives because of them. If there was a strong consenus among real experts that this thing was safe, then they would have had no trouble getting the relevant safety certifications.
And completing extensive further testing doesn't necessarily invalidate or address the prior criticisms raised.
For the pilot and co-founder, yes, he deserves the award. For the passengers, I predict lawsuits. But apparently the contract included a clause about accidental death.
The guy who brought his son also probably deserves a Darwin award.
An accident is when something unexpectedly goes wrong. This end result was baked into the design and it was merely a question of how many times you could cycle that hull before it would implode, not if it would. Death lottery.
And then conning few other people to go into something that looked like what mythbusters built in a week (and if THEY did it it would probably not implode...)
It doesn't break like soda can, it breaks like eggshells or hard plastic. It would probably look like something exploded on side of it, when any small hole/crack started it would just isntantly make rest of it rip till the pressure equalizes
Carbon fiber fails much like wood, you'll end up with a couple of larger fragments and a much larger number of smaller fragments, some too small to even see with the unaided eye.
Unlike say a metal vessel during an implosion which would remain mostly connected but crushed or ripped into a few larger chunks depending on where the initial fault was.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VNvEpDyUhvo
Shows nicely how a fault propagates through carbon fiber.
That's tensile fault, in sub it would be compressed, for which carbon fiber is much worse for. But yeah, it would be equally if not more violent
Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYqOMjoz_i8
https://youtu.be/PlvyZ1r1DCM?t=266
https://youtu.be/Iedj9OZlEfI?t=330
not explosive because hydraulic press doesn't move as much but still shows it will instantly lose strength the second it is breaking
400 atm is only one order of magnitude of a difference from what water cutters use. It's insane amount of force, there is no "small leak" nor "small leak expanding", just "boom"