El Niño May Break a Record and Reshape Weather Around the Globe | Hacker News Reader

El Niño May Break a Record and Reshape Weather Around the Globe

scientificamerican.com

37 pointsLinuxBender13 comments

http://archive.today/2023.06.22-065337/https://www.scientifi...

“[they cycle] every 2-7 years…unusually La Niña has been pattern for last 3”

What’s unusual? I feel like I’m missing something key

The world, oceans and surface, have been warming because of us humans. Cycles like La Nina and El Nino bring variability to the weather around an ever warming planet. La Nina cools while El Nino warms. So it's likely that we will break all time heat records (you see that already in Texas for example) and that means more dead people. We may even temporarily go above 1.5C, providing a nice preview of what "normal" will look like in a couple years time (well, there is no longer a normal, expect warming and chaos).

Yeah I get global warming

What I don’t get is how 3 years is unusually long if the average is 2-7 years

(And I really do think I’m missing something important but can’t quite pull the fact out of the neurons I think it’s in. Idk why I’m downvoted through the floor, seems like a real reach to read it as climate skepticism)

The distribution could be heavily right-skewed. Not necessarily saying it is, but it would be an example of a case where such statements would still be valid.

La Nina and El Nino are the extreme ends of the oscillation. By my reading it's saying that the oscillation pattern got "stuck" at peak La Nina for 3 years running. I'm not exist that's just how I read it.

I can’t even find the quote you’re referencing in the article. It seems like you subconsciously changed it to meet your interpretation…

> The ocean seesaws between these states every two to seven years, though the past three years unusually saw three back-to-back La Niñas.

You are correct, and I don't know why you're being downvoted. You can see the ONI chart in this NOAA Presentation: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/l...

The cycle has had many multi-year La Niña events. That part is not unusual.

Thank you, danke

Note that there are thresholds involved in defining the events. There is a third state of neutral temperature deviation as part of the cycle in between events. So, you don't just divide the cycle time in half and call it either La Nina or El Nino.

Another aspect made clear from the presentation is the different global measurement zones that contribute to the analysis. The actual events aren't as simple as one scalar number, but distribute energy differently around the ocean, and have different localized impacts from this distribution. I suspect that this colors the narrative around particular events depending on who is reporting.

But, I agree the chart in that presentation doesn't make the duration of the most recent La Nina seem that unusual in this limited time period. It would be interesting to see the same chart extended back to 1900 or so, but I imagine they may not have a comparable enough dataset.

Wikipedia has some dates that clarify:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a

Difference between gaps and duration.

Frequency is increasing from 1900-2000 30-35% of the years we had an El Nino. Where as we had 55%-60% in the last 20.

El Ninos tend to be associated with above average global temperatures. Combine that with global warming and they tend to break the record for hottest year more often than not. So yeah. They stand out as something to pay attention to for people who care.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com