Usually enrollment declines on a regional basis have more to do with generational variances. People have smaller families at different times.

In some areas you have more religious fanatics driving homeschooling, but the COVID numbers were really kids dropping out. Urban and rural schools did a particularly shitty job during the pandemic.

Private school is no panacea either. My kids have been in private schools, and you have to keep an eye on what’s going on. The teachers get paid a lot less and they have a tendency to paint a rosy picture. You need to be a strong advocate for your kid, especially if they have needs for extra help.