One thousand balls dropped on a double well curve (~ x^4 – x^2) [video]
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Here's the link to the right time ... the 130 second mark:
> In the 1000-ball part balls are initially mutually separated by less than a millionth of the plot width.
For instance, if we look at the distribution of astronomical bodies in the universe, almost nothing can be understood without knowing the initial conditions. Or, to take the other side of the coin: by studying the present day state of astronomical bodies, we can infer quite a bit about the initial conditions of the universe. Whereas, knowing a later state of the balls in the video tells us almost nothing about where the initial ball drop occurred.
Perhaps the answer is “chaotic dynamics”. Yet gravitational interactions can certainly be chaotic. And some chaotic systems still don’t “come to equilibrium”.
I suppose I’m asking how one might look at the dynamical laws at a glance and say one system will come to equilibrium and another will not.
There's also similar work framed in terms of billiards:
[1] I’m on my phone and not thinking too hard, you may need to add some Brownian noise to the dynamics for this experiment, but the double-well is commonly used to demonstrate this behavior.
Naively the various arguments and theorems about thermal equilibrium (at least macroscopic equilibrium as you point out) would seem to apply to the situation of 10^24 bodies bouncing around and interacting gravitationally (with some feedback mechanisms into other modes)… basically like a box of billiard balls interacting mostly electromagnetically.
Yet there is no “gravitational temperature” that allows one to predict the expected speed of a rock of a certain mass floating in the solar system. (Whereas knowing the temperature of a gas in a box gives good statistical information about the speed of a molecule of a certain mass in the box.)
Incidentally I’ve put some version of this question to four different physicists and gotten four different replies! (“Chaos” being one of these :) )
In the bouncing ball example, there are periodic orbits that are created for some balls, in which case you can perfectly predict their past and future. But a lot of measurements we do make about the world tend to be statistical measurements that don't depend on measuring the precise trajectory of individual particles over long periods of time. So these issues tend to not be important unless precise details are needed.