Ask HN: How do you quantify truth? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: How do you quantify truth?

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A fiancier friend of mine thinks climate change is a scam.

How do I prove to him that it isn't?

All my evidence to seem seems to have counter evidence that he believes in.

Is there another framework I can use besides providing him with evidence that can help me convince him?

I thought of using the "Precautionary Principle"[0]

What other frame works do you have that can help me convince him that climate change is real?

[0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle

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I believe you mean “qualify” truth, as quantify suggests counting. The “truth” is something consistent with an actual occurring in the natural world. The problem with people and truth, people really want validation or a “cheat code” at life, not truths. Empirical evidence is one way to count it.

Also if you mean your friend is a “financier” then DONT! It is a bad habit to attempt to persuade someone of anything they are not open to, unless you have no concern for the relationship’s prospects.

Ideas are a funny thing, some take them as seriously as their own identity, more seriously than “truth” even.

This intention you have for being convincing reminds me of the schools of rhetoric in ancient times. Convincing and right are separate endeavors.

After all of that, try speaking towards your subject’s best interests.

Are property investments at risk from rising water levels?

Are industries poised to be made or broken on the most accurate ten year forecast on climate change?

I might recommend taking a meaningful interest in persuasive arguments in general if you want to “up your game.”

Otherwise, it is worth noting how awkward and unrewarding taking responsibility for the thoughts, beliefs and ideas of others usually turns out.

Go talk to a farmer whose livelihood depends on the weather and you will find few who don’t believe the weather is screwy today and it is hard to make a living. Over the course of 20-30 years watching in one place you do see a difference in the timing of the seasons, plant community, patterns of rainfall in such.

Now if you spend all your time in air conditioning you might not notice and that is part of why your friend can sustain his belief system.

Nice to see a good common sense point of view so aptly summed up. It's very much the same that gets a lot of use around my way with those who spend less time outdoors.

Still one encounters some farmers who believe though there's change, they've been temped by ideas it's all natural and part of large cyclic weather patterns, and or the planet has been undergoing a desertification pattern at least a couple millennia in the making. In my locale I have to give a number of farmers who are sceptics a bit of leeway since their local experience of a couple of scientific studies have been somewhat flawed. (aka bad science mostly from unintentional bias and incorrect extrapolations.)

Recently I talked to one farmer who thought man made climate change was a little bit nonsense ... but is the very one who informed me and one who readily points out the reason some of the coast below me misses out on its usual summer storm rain was due to the large heat bubble over the vast open mining coal pits west of where he had a farm - presently storms from the west hit the bubble and split north and south, where once they used to move west to east unhindered.

well there are ice ages. can't have them without some sort of climate change. your friend should believe in ice ages.

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