Hacker News Reader

Comment by dredmorbius | Hacker News Reader

I'm starting to reach the view that VC have decided that Reddit must either see a large liquidity event or die trying. Given the present investment environment, it's time to close off taps.

That's not the risk perspective I face, and I'd prefer to see Reddit accede to community demands (though I've long since abandoned much hope they'd do so, my own personal subreddit's been all but dormant for about five years on just that basis, though I've continued to mine it for links on topics I'd posted previously).

I'm not certain what Reddit's end game is should the IPO fail, or fizzle, but it would seem that preparing for an alternative online presence might well be a good idea.

View on HN

Yeah, I think you’re exactly right. My guess would be that as a public company, Reddit looks a lot like Lyft - not a terribly differentiated product, cost structure out of control, poorly performing stock, but still a multi-billion dollar company.

I think I read somewhere that Reddit had taken like $1.7 billion in VC money. Even if its current valuation is way down from what it appears to have peaked at ($15 billion), there’s still plenty of cushion for the VCs to get their money out and give the employees some liquidity.

They’ll probably torch the franchise in the process, but at least for a brief moment, they have created some real value for the shareholders.

> but at least for a brief moment, they have created some real value for the shareholders.

Not yet.

Spoiler: <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VzgIUW49PWQ/U3LSp6iN0xI/AAAAAAAAA...>

I think the VCs blame Reddit leadership for not somehow developing ChatReddit and becoming instant bazillionaires.

And management is scrambling to show they can still have a profitable exit.

That's one take. The other is much simpler: it has been communicated that investors will no longer bankroll Reddit and so now they will have to make ends meet, one way or another.

That would be a part of my assessment. What your response omits is the consideration of an IPO, what potential valuations might be achieved, and the fact that VC manage a portfolio of assets. The net risk of an (increasingly unlikely) large liquidity event, vs. a wash, still sees its upside in the big-pop IPO.

Which is to say: it really is rational for investors to pursue a course with a high probability of killing the goose, as the alternative is still little or no return.

The post-IPO Reddit would still be on its own, though it might be able to capitalise somewhat on the IPO itself for a time. That it will eventually have to make it on its own as a business does seem clear. And frankly, increasingly unlikely.

An IPO presumes that there will be buyers. I wouldn't touch Reddit stock with a 10 foot pole until 3 years post IPO if I would ever even consider it.

But investors don't have to work for someone else's book, just for their own and if they see an IPO as a way out that's an excellent reason not to want in.

You are not the entire market, clearly.

The relevant question is what market sentiment is on the IPO valuation, and how much that's shifted over the past month.

History shows that financial bubbles can and do occur. The market is not inherently rational. Who puts what value on the issue and why is a question that's hard to answer. History has also shown that those assisting in IPOs (e.g., investment banks) may commit to making purchases at specific price points in an attempt to bid up prices. Which is to say that the market is neither transparent nor entirely free or fair.

Again: the broader point is that VC manage a portfolio of investments, Reddit is one asset in that portfolio, and that calculus may well consider a 2x return as little different from a 1x or even a loss, relative to the possibility of a 10x+ exit.

Or to use the sportsball metaphor: this appears to be a Hail Mary pass.

And quarterback is about to get sacked.

> Or to use the sportsball metaphor: this appears to be a Hail Mary pass.

That we agree on, and it's one reason I'm not sure if the mods that revolted realize how thin the ice under Reddit is.

As a mod, I'm well aware, and it's why I'd moved my own activities and focus elsewhere years ago.

Reddit has remained a useful space to launch the occasional new forum (e.g., /r/Plexodus) on a transitory basis, and still occasionally proves useful for technical issues, but that's really the limit of my present interaction.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com