> Maybe not this time? Maybe people will hold out? Maybe we won't get locked in by everyone else?

It won't, because 'cloud'-smart home is a total gimmick.

You get better service by getting local first smart services (ZigBee etc), and even that is barely worth it.

It's neat and a fun toy, but ultimately not going to ever see widespread use beyond enthusiast bubbles. I did get my home fully automated though wrt heating/lighting, but it's more akin to a hobby then the value you get from a phone.