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Comment by mensetmanusman | Hacker News Reader

Roll an N-sided die representing all possible locations for possible human/bat human/animal interactions.

What percentage of those facets are city centers near level 4 bio labs that research these types of viruses?

COVID is only BSL-3. China has over 100 of those, so the odds of a city center being near a lab is much higher.

If COVID had an incubation period of a 1-2 weeks, it's also possible for the outbreak to occur in a city center that is not a likely location for human/bat/animal interactions, so the percentage will increase further.

FWIW my understanding is that the labs were only BSL-2.

> Prior to and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, coronavirus research at the WIV has been conducted in BSL-2 and BSL-3 laboratories.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology

Even if they had done it in the BSL-4 parts, the french partners in the facility actually left it after they saw how poorly the bsl-4 was implemented, only one French researcher stayed.

That is probably what caused the leak

If there was a leak.

If there was a leak from this particular lab.

The WIV has BSL-4, BSL-3 and BSL-2 labs. But the research involving insertion of human specific furin cleavage sites into coronaviruses sampled in the wild was done in BSL2 which just means a thin medical mask and gloves. https://theintercept.com/2021/09/23/coronavirus-research-gra...

Wow. The past 3 years I thought they had a lot more PPE than that. Not sure why anyone would be surprised about a leak when that's all they wore.

Realistically, many people's bayesian priors are severely skewed against the lab leak hypothesis because it is associated with Donald Trump, and even intelligent people find it difficult to separate the message from the messenger.

The fact that one of the authors of this is Shellenberger makes me assume the opposite is true. He's clearly a grifter.

Can grifters sometimes be correct? Yes. On a topic that happens to be culture war catnip? The odds reduce greatly.

I never heard of him. If the facts are:

1. The lab was doing gain of function experiments on coronaviruses

2. They wore limited PPE while working with these viruses

3. The first reported cases were near the lab

then I think there's a high likelihood the virus came from the lab. I don't know why this would be controversial.

It's not at all just a "thin mask and gloves." Just because Joe Rogan said this nonsense doesn't make it the truth.

Here are the actual BSL2 requirements: https://uwm.edu/ibc/bsl2_requirements/

Yeah, no mask at all it seems.

> Infectious material used in procedures with a potential for creating aerosols or splashes, or used in high concentrations or large volumes, must be handled in an annually certified biosafety cabinet.

> Note: certified biosafety cabinet not to be worn as mask.

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