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This doesn't pass the eye test. If it's true that religious people will outbreed non-religious people, why is religiosity declining?

The simple answer is that religion is not hereditary. Children of religious parents do not necessarily follow their parents' beliefs.

My family is an example. Several children taught that evolution is fake, and none of us agree with our parents. Only one of us have any religious beliefs at all.

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Religiosity isn’t declining (globally) and the book addresses the “defection” idea, noting that most people still have similar beliefs as their parents, and that birth rates still outcompete defections.

Every source I can find says that secularism/atheism is growing worldwide. Not sure what you're talking about.

Even if "most" people don't "defect", you have to make up the remainder by people going the other way, for which there doesn't seem to be any evidence.

The nonreligious are growing in raw numbers but decreasing in percentage terms.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/10/how-religious-will-th...

You don’t need to make up the remainder by going the other way, as I mentioned above: religious population growth comes from birth rates, not conversions.

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