The problem with this claim is it’s objectively not how OpenAI works. First, they pay contractors to do RLHF so that’s a limited new source of data. More importantly, they have a huge user base generating new content (conversations) and rating it too! I think one could be suspicious of including responses generated by the model, but the user generated text from ChatGPT is not going to be AI generated, so you grow your corpus that way.
If you just slurp all AI content sure, you get the collapse this paper talks about. But if you only ingest the upvoted conversations (which could still be a lot of data, and is also a moat by the way) what then?
The other reason I find this line of argument overly pessimistic is we haven’t seriously started to build products where this gen of LLMs converse with humans in speech; similar opportunities to curate large datasets there too.
Finally, there is no reason OpenAI cannot just hire domain experts to converse with the models, or otherwise build highly curated datasets that increase the average quality. They have billions of dollars to throw at GPT-5; they could hire hundreds of top tier engineers, mathematicians, economists, traders, or whatever, full time for years just debating and tutoring GPT-4 to build the next dataset. The idea that slurping the internet is the only option seems pretty unimaginative to me.